proscription

pro-SKRIP-shuhn

A prohibition or the act of prohibiting, particularly one imposed by law.

Latin proscribere (to publish in writing, to name someone as outlawed), from pro- (front) + scribere (write).

 

Proscription is the opposite of prescription.

Prescription is written instructions on what to do.

Proscription is written instructions on what not to do.

 

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PROTREPTIC OF THE WEEK

 

The proscription for use of proceeds with SBA loans is that you can not repay delinquent taxes.    You also can not use loan proceeds to repay a shareholder note.

 

The same proscription regarding repayment of delinquent taxes also applies to the State Small Business Loan Guarantee Program.

 

Shareholder notes however can be repay with a SBLGP loan.

 

It would be proficuous to know the difference.

 

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 7.50%

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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for JANUARY

 

For 20 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 5.24% but note rate is 5.31491% and the effective yield is 7.038%.

For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 5.24% but note rate is 5.29403% and the effective yield is 6.517%.

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE

 

The economy ended the year on a strong note with 256,000 new jobs for December.

 

The current streak of positive job growth of 48 months is now in second place for longest job streaks in US History.

 

The longest streak was 113 months that ended in early 2020.

 

Here are the latest jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

2024      2,230,000

2023     2,700,000

2022      4,810,000

2021       7,270,000

2020    -9,370,000

2019     2,108,000

2018      2,679,000

2017      2,110,000

2016      2,160,000

2015     2,740,000

2014     3,116,000

2013     2,074,000

2012     2,193,000

2011     2,103,000

2010    1,022,000

2009    -5,052,000

2008    -3,617,000

2007    1,115,000

2006    2,071,000

2005    2,484,000

2004    2,019,000

 

What does all this mean?

 

I don't know.

 

Of the total 256,000 new jobs in December, 33,000 were government jobs.

 

How many government employees are there in the United States?

 

There are a little less than 23 million public employees.

 

2.4 million are in the federal government.   What’s striking is that the federal government workforce has remained relatively flat over the last seven decades.

 

Of course, over such a long period, the population of the United States would have increased considerably. So it probably makes more sense to look at the public workforce as a percentage of the population.

 

In 1960 federal employees accounted for 1.07% of all jobs.   It has now declined to 0.7% of all jobs.

 

That makes the federal government the nation’s single largest employer, with even more workers than Walmart, Amazon or McDonald’s.

 

The federal government spent roughly $271 billion last year to compensate all those civilian federal employees.

 

With the budget deficit projected to be $1.9 TRILLION, firing all government workers would barely dent the deficit.

 

As a result, the government continues to borrow.

 

The weekly 3 month treasury bill auction was at a record $84 billion for the second week in a row.    The rate came in at 4.205 percent.

 

Results for the $22 billion 4.50 percent 30-year bond resulted in a high yield awarded at 4.913 percent versus 4.535 percent a month ago.

 

Fed policymakers meet on January 28-29.      There will be little reason to ease the fed funds target rate range and fight the bond market on the longer end of the yield curve.

 

 

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OFF BASE

 

A three day weekend approaches.

 

In addition to setting monetary policy, the Federal Reserve also proscribes what days you can work.

 

Here are the upcoming Federal Reserve Holidays:

 

Monday, Jan. 20: Martin Luther King, Jr.'s Birthday 

Monday, Feb. 17: Washington's Birthday 

Monday, May 26: Memorial Day 

Thursday, June 19: Juneteenth 

Friday, July 4: Fourth of July 

Monday, Sept. 1: Labor Day 

Monday, Oct. 13: Columbus Day 

Tuesday, Nov 11: Veterans Day

Thursday, Nov. 27: Thanksgiving 

Thursday, Dec. 25: Christmas