Monday, August 29, 2011

The SBA and esurient

esurient

i-SOOR-ee-uhnt
Hungry; greedy.
From Latin esurire (to be hungry), from edere (to eat).
________________________________________________

TIP OF THE WEEK

Esurient buyers of commercial real estate will be disappointed if they think recessionary bargains still abound.

According to the Moody’s/Real Commercial Property Price Index, commercial real estate prices rose another 0.9 percent in June. This is the second month in a row that prices have gained. This index measures the change in actual transaction prices for commercial real estate based on the repeat-sales of the same assets at different points in time.

Most notably, prices of industrial buildings in the Western United States are only 5.5% below the peak which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2007. Industrial prices in the West have rebounded 29.5% since their post peak low in third quarter of 2009.

If you would like a copy of the Moody’s August 2011 special report on the Moody’s/Real Commercial Property Price Index, let me know.
_______________________________________
Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate August 2011 = 3.19%
SBA Fixed Base Rate August 2011 = 5.41%
________________________________________

504 Debenture Rate for August
The debenture rate is 3.29% but note rate is 3.34% and effective yield is only 5.142%.
Note that the effective yield for debt refinance under the 504 program is slightly higher.
It is now 5.501%.
________________________________________________

AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE

Esurience in the jobs market?

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits dropped by 80,000 in the week ended August 13th to 3.64 million. This is the fewest since September 2008. This continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs. Extended benefits and emergency payments recipients total another 3.64 million. The number recently decreased by about 20,400.

Add those two numbers together and you get just OVER 7 million people receiving some form of jobless benefit. The economy still has just UNDER 7 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession.

On the Friday before the long weekend celebrating LABOR will be the payroll report from the Department of Labor.

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

July 117,000
June 46,000
May 25,000
April 232,000
March 194,000
February 235,000
January 68,000
2010
December 121,000
November 93,000
October 210,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Payroll increases of around 125,000 a month are needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, while about 200,000 a month would bring it down a percentage point over a year. Through the first six months of 2011, the economy has added 757,000 total non-farm jobs or just 126,000 per month.

Interest rates will continue to remain low for an extended period.

___________________________________________

OFF BASE

Monday is Labor Day.

For many people, this marks the end of summer.

In high society, Labor Day is considered the last day of the year when it is fashionable to wear white. The post–Labor Day moratorium on white clothing and accessories has long ranked among etiquette hard-liners' most sacred rules.

So then if white is out, what color works?

Success has a color, and the color is red. In fact, a recent study confirms previous reports that athletes wearing red uniforms win competitions more often than opponents dressed in other colors.

When opponents of a game are equally matched, the team dressed in red is more likely to win.

British anthropologists Russell Hill and Robert Barton of the University of Durham reached that conclusion by studying the outcomes of one-on-one boxing, tae kwon do, Greco-Roman-wresting, and freestyle-wrestling matches at the 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, Greece. In each event Olympic staff randomly assigned red or blue clothing or body protection to competitors. When otherwise equally matched with their opponent in fitness and skill, athletes wearing red were more likely to win the bout. In equally matched bouts, the preponderance of red wins was great enough that it could not be attributed to chance, the anthropologists say.

The advantage of red may be intuitively known, judging from the prevalence of red uniforms in sports.

In 2002 the Angels changed from their dark blue and periwinkle to their current red. They ended up winning the World Series that year.

In 2006, the Diamondbacks ditched the purple, teal and copper for Sedona red. The Diamondbacks are now four games up in the NL West with 28 games left.

So it is the change to red that is helping the Diamondbacks? Arizona has rallied behind its starting pitching- mainly Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has been on a roll, allowing no more than three runs in his previous nine starts while moving toward the top of the NL Cy Young favorites list. And now the Diamondback’s pitching is about to get better once Trevor Bauer is called up from the minor leagues. Trevor was the best pitcher in all of college baseball this year for UCLA. In just 15 innings of pitching for the minor league AA Baybears he has struck out 23 batters. At UCLA he had 460 career strikeouts. His career strikeout total ranks second on the Pac-10 list behind Tim Lincecum, who had 491 strikeouts for Washington from 2004-06.

Trevor’s UCLA Bruins team color is a baby blue. It does not strike fear into opponents like red does. It may just lull them to sleep. But if opponents are caught flatfooted this year, the UCLA Bruin football pistol offense just might work. Their first game is this Saturday against Houston.

Color probably doesn’t really matter. Usually the esurient team wins.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

SBA 504 debenture rate

SBA 504 debenture rate for August

The debenture rate is 3.29%, the note rate is 3.34% and the effective yield is 5.142%.

Note that the effective yield for debt refinance under the 504 program is slightly higher. It is now 5.501%.

Monday, August 15, 2011

The SBA and vatic

vatic


VAT-ik

Of or related to a prophet or a prophecy: prophetic.

From Latin vates (prophet)
________________________________________________

TIP OF THE WEEK

A vatic Federal Reserve pledged for the first time to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low at least through mid-2013.

That means the rates on SBA loans provide borrowers with opportunities that can’t be ignored.
_______________________________________

Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate August 2011 = 3.19%
SBA Fixed Base Rate August 2011 = 5.41%
________________________________________

504 Debenture Rate for July

The debenture rate is 3.74% but note rate is 3.79% and effective yield is only 5.59%.

Note that the effective yield for debt refinance under the 504 program is slightly higher.

It is now 5.947%.
________________________________________________



AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE

2/3’s of a billion dollars was cut from the deficit last week.

Our government sold $72 billion of notes and bonds last week at extraordinarily low yields. It will save taxpayers $647 million in interest payments during the life of the securities.

The auction produced a yield of 3.750 percent on the 30 year Treasury bond. Yields on 30 year bonds have fallen from this year’s high of 4.79 percent on February 9. The record low yield for a 30-year bond auction is 3.54 percent, reached in February 2009.

Last week’s auction results show investors are thumbing their noses at Standard & Poor’s decision to lower its assessment of the U.S.’s creditworthiness to AA+, and are instead scooping up the debt on signs the economy and inflation are slowing and the near-zero chance the government will default.

The Federal Reserve boosted debt markets last week when it pledged to keep its target rate for overnight loans between banks at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent at least through mid-2013.

Isn’t the Federal Reserve worried that it might have to raise rates sooner if inflation starts to rear its ugly head?

One of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of the economy is the capacity utilization rate. The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher. Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.

Keep your eye on Tuesday's release from the Federal Reserve on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.

Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:
1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004- 79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 69.9
2010- 74.8
2011- 76.7

What does all this mean?

I don't know.

Last month, the rate of capacity utilization for total industry stagnated at 76.7 percent.

Capacity utilization at 76.7% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

That means we still have a long way to go before interest rates really start to go up.
___________________________________________

OFF BASE

Sixty years ago today, August 15th, 1951 Giants rookie center fielder Willie Mays makes a running catch of a drive to deep right centerfield and whirls counterclockwise to throw out the astonished runner from third base at home. The Giants then come up to bat and Dodgers pitcher Ralph Branca gives up a two run homer. The Giants go on to win 3-1.

The game proved to be vatic.

Less than two months later, Ralph Branca would give up another home run to lose a game. In one relief outing on October 3, 1951, he gave up a home run to Bobby Thomson of the New York Giants to cost his team the pennant and allow the Giants to go on to the World Series. The "Shot Heard 'Round the World" completed a monumental collapse by the Dodgers who were leading the league by 13 1/2 games on August 11th.

Three years later, in the 1954 World Series, Willie Mays would make the “Catch”, a sensational running catch snaring a long drive near the outfield wall with his back to the infield.

The ball traveled about 420 feet, which in most stadiums would've been either over the wall or off the wall for extra bases. However the cavernous Polo Grounds, with its rectangular shape, allowed Mays to make a flat-out on-the-run facing-the-bleachers catch to make the out. After catching the ball, he immediately spun and threw the ball with a mighty heave to the infield. The runners on second and first couldn’t score. The play prevented the Indians from taking the lead.

In the stands, sat Yogi Berra. He was asked if he thought the Giants would win. He replied, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Deja Vu All Over Again

Senate Republicans have introduced a bill that could eliminate all federal programs to assist small businesses, as well as women-owned, veteran-owned and minority-owned firms. Senator Richard Burr (R-NC) introduced S. 1116, titled the "Department of Commerce and the Workforce Consolidation Act," which would combine the Small Business Administration (SBA) with the Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce, a move that could devastate U.S. job creation.

Republicans have attempted to abolish the SBA for nearly three decades. President Ronald Reagan tried to shut the agency down back when I first got started doing SBA loans.

Once people realize that the SBA 7(a) program not only drives job creation but is also a net revenue generator for the government, support for the program should keep it alive.  If you factor in the cost of the program, both its administration as well the actual guarantees, against the guarantee fees collected and net tax revenues generated, this program pays for itself.  Call it supply side spending.



Thursday, August 4, 2011

SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update

According to SBA, another $332,045,000 in SBA 7(a) loans funded last week.  That brings the gross loan totals to $16,774,472,000.   The SBA has only authorized $17,500,000,000 in SBA 7(a) loans for its fiscal year which does not end until September 30th.

Once you factor in however loan cancellations and loans that are approved but never fund, we are only at about $15 billion through July.   SBA is currently funding about $300 million in loans per week.  Calculated another way, SBA has funded 86% of its authority, with 83% of the fiscal year remaining. 

With nine weeks left in the fiscal year and assuming no surge in loan applications, SBA 7(a) lending should not be interrupted except for many just a few days.

SBA 7(a) Rate Update

Indices:


PRIME RATE= 3.25%

SBA LIBOR Base Rate August 2011 = 3.19%

SBA Fixed Base Rate August 2011 = 5.41%

Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices

Monday, August 1, 2011

The SBA and Gordian

Gordian

(GOR-dee-uhn)

Highly intricate; extremely difficult to solve.

In Greek mythology, King Gordius of Phrygia tied a knot that defied all who tried to untie it. An oracle prophesied that one who would undo this Gordian knot would rule Asia. Alexander the Great simply cut the knot with one stroke of his sword. Hence the saying, "to cut the Gordian knot", meaning to solve a difficult problem by a simple, bold, and effective action.

________________________________________________



TIP OF THE WEEK

Many people think that there is no Gordian complexity to commercial real estate. The recovery in commercial estate will happen once jobs start coming back.

It’s not so simple. The July 20, 2011 The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) measured a 6.3% increase in May, the first positive move in six months and the largest one-month increase since the inception of the index. This index measures the change in actual transaction prices for commercial real estate assets based on the repeat-sales of the same assets at different points in time.


Distressed transactions registered a price increase of 4.8%. Accounting for 27.0% of repeat sales, they switched this month from being a drag to a contributor to a price recovery.


Let me know if you would like a copy of the July Moody’s/Real Commercial Property Price Index report.

SBA 7(a) and 504 loans are available for buyers not wanting to miss out on opportunities in commercial real estate.

_______________________________________

Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate July 2011 = 3.19%
SBA Fixed Base Rate July 2011 = 5.66%

________________________________________


504 Debenture Rate for July

The debenture rate is 3.74% but note rate is 3.79% and effective yield is only 5.59%.

Note that the effective yield for debt refinance under the 504 program is slightly higher.
It is now 5.947%.

________________________________________________



AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE



The Federal Reserve meets next week on monetary policy. The decision on what the Federal Open Market Committee does with interest rates comes on the heels of another report on jobs for the month of July.

Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:


June 18,000
May 25,000
April 232,000
March 194,000
February 235,000
January 68,000
2010
December 121,000
November 93,000
October 210,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)


What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Job growth has obviously stalled in the second quarter.

Through the first six months of 2011, the economy has added 757,000 total non-farm jobs or just 126,000 per month. There have been 945,000 private sector jobs added, or about 158,000 per month. This barely keeps up with population growth. While this is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, the economy still has 6.98 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession.


The Federal Reserve will have no choice but to keep hacking at the Gordian knot by keeping interest rates low for an extended period.

___________________________________________



OFF BASE


I am not a Constitutional scholar but here’s something interesting.



Section 4 of the 14th Amendment reads: "The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payments of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned."



The Supreme Court has on only one occasion -- in the depths of the Depression -- had the opportunity to rule on this section. In that case, Perry v. United States, the Court said, "The Constitution gives to the Congress the power to borrow money on the credit of the United States ... Having this power to authorize the issue of definite obligations for the payment of money borrowed, the Congress has not been vested with authority to alter or destroy those obligations."



Now that Congress has borrowed money and incurred debt, we cannot -- as a nation and under our Constitution -- walk away.

It sounds like the whole debt ceiling debate, like most political debates, was a bunch of hot air and idle banter. The President could have pulled his sword out and cut that Gordian knot awhile ago.



More importantly, the Detroit Tigers went out and got some more pitching by trading for Doug Fister. Fister was the Mariners number three starter. Up to his last start before being dealt to the Detroit Tigers, Fister pitched to a 3–12 record with only a 3.33 ERA. Don’t be deceived by his win-loss record. He has the lowest run support in major-league baseball. And it’s not even close. Fister’s run support is 1.97 per nine innings. Next closest is San Diego’s Dustin Moseley at 2.55. He also has great control. Fister is tied for seventh among all American League pitchers with 2.0 walks per nine innings.