Tuesday, May 28, 2013

SBA loans are good for the economy

SBA 7(a) loan volume continues to pick up the pace as another $378,585,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved for the one week ending May 24th.  That's a nice pick up from last week's pace of just over $299,139,000.


If you think the economy might be gathering some steam right now, you might be right.  Keep in mind that the correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance appears to be quite strong.  Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function.  It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

SBA loans are good for the economy

SBA loan activity is robust.

The SBA approved $299,139,000 in SBA 7(a) loans for the week ending May 17th.

This is a 20% increase over last year.

The correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance is strong.

Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function.  It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.

This should be taken as a positive leading economic indicator.
  

Monday, May 20, 2013

The SBA and meiosis


meiosis

my-O-sis 

1. Understatement for rhetorical effect.
2. The process of cell division in which the number of chromosomes per cell is reduced to one half.

From Greek meiosis (lessening), from meioun (to lessen), from meion (less).  

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

SBA loans are OK.

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2013 = 3.20%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2013 = 4.52%
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Debenture Rate for May   

The debenture rate is 2.07% but note rate is 2.107% and effective yield is only 4.15%.

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 
This month’s Treasury auction of 30 year bonds went off at a yield of only 2.98%, the lowest yield since December.

April’s auction had a yield of 2.998% compared to March’s 3.248%, the highest in a year.

 A factor in the favor of buyers of 30-year bonds--inflation fears, the biggest threat to the 30-year bond's value over time, have pulled back over the past month.  Several gauges of inflation in the U.S. released in recent weeks fell below the Fed's 2% target, and some bond bulls believe falling inflation gives the Fed breathing room.

The capacity utilization rate, which measures how much plants and factories are being used, is one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of the economy.  The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher.   Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.

Last week the Federal Reserve reported that capacity utilization fell to 77.8 percent from 78.3 percent the prior month.  This is only 0.1 percentage point above its level of a year earlier.

 Mild inflation gives the Federal Reserve more latitude to continue with its aggressive policies to spur greater economic growth. The Fed has said it plans to keep the short-term interest rate it controls at a record low near zero until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5%, provided inflation remains in check.

So where then are interest rates going?

Eurodollar futures settle at a three- month lending rate that has averaged about 22 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.

Here is a summary of what the market expects for Eurodollar futures based upon the pit-traded prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange:

DEC13- 0.32
DEC14- 0.47
DEC15- 0.84
DEC16- 1.48
DEC17- 2.17
DEC18- 2.75
DEC19- 3.07

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

It would appear that interest rates are never ever going up.
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OFF BASE
A three day weekend finally beckons.  

After three months without a holiday, Memorial Day is here.

According to the Federal Reserve, here are the remaining holidays for 2013:

Memorial Day May 27
Independence Day July 4
Labor Day September 2
Columbus Day October 14
Veterans Day November 11
Thanksgiving Day November 28
Christmas Day December 25

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

SBA 504 Debenture Rate for May


Debenture Rate for May

The debenture rate is 2.07% but note rate is 2.107% and effective yield is only 4.15%.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

SBA loans are good for the economy


Small business is the engine that runs the U.S. economy as it has generated 65 percent of net new jobs over the past 17 years.   The fuel that runs that engine is the SBA 7(a) loan program.

SBA 7(a) loans account for most long term loans made to small businesses.    When comparing SBA term loans with bank CALL report term loans, SBA loans account for as much as 70% of all long term loans made to small businesses.   The longer term amortization conserves precious cash flow and improves the permanent working capital of small business.

The correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance is strong.

Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function.  It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.

For the week ending May 10th, $352,951,000 SBA 7(a) loans were approved bringing the year to date total to $10,091,740,000.  

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

SBA loans are good for the economy

The SBA approved $295,258,000 in SBA 7(a) loans for the week ending May 3rd.  This is a 20% increase over the same year to date period last year, an increase of over $1,645,172,000.

This is positive news since the the correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance appears to be quite strong.  Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function.  It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

SBA 7(a) Rate Update


Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2013 = 3.20%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2013 = 4.52%

Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

SBA loans are good for the economy

SBA 7(a) loan volume continues to pick up the pace as another $375,246,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved for the one week ending April 26th.  That's a nice pick up from last week's pace of just over $293,840,000.

For the month of April, $1,353,386,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved.

For those of you fretting about the economy stalling right now, keep in mind that the correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance appears to be quite strong.  Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function.  It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.