Monday, October 3, 2022

The SBA and PROpaedeutic

 propaedeutic

pro-pi-du-tik

 

preceding and preparing for something

a course that provides an introduction to an art or science (or to more advanced study generally)

 

You don't have to be a walking encyclopedia to use it, but "propaedeutic" does tend to occur mostly in scholarly discussions of learning and education.

 

"Propaedeutic" might be a "hard" word, but one easy thing to remember about it is that it is closely related to "encyclopedia."

"Encyclopedia" is from Greek paideia, meaning "education," plus enkyklios, meaning "general." "Propaedeutic" is from Greek paideuein, meaning "to teach," plus "pro-," which means "before."

 

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TIP OF THE WEEK

 

A propaedeutic promulgation.

 

Like the slope of the yield curve, SBA 7(a) loan approval volume has been prospicient about the direction of the economy.

 

Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over nine years using the Microsoft CORREL function.  It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.

 

SBA 7(a) loan approvals were profluent.

 

Through September 16th $24,101,763,300 in SBA 7(a) loans had been approved.   While below the levels of the prior year that had a 90% guarantee and no guarantee fee, SBA 7(a) loan volume did exceed fiscal years 2017 through 2020.

 

The new fiscal year starting October 1st has an authorization level of $30 billion which is more than sufficient lending authority.

 

The SBA program for this new fiscal year sets the 7(a) loan program at a ZERO subsidy rate.

 

That means the fees collected from borrowers and lenders are sufficient to cover the projected costs of the loan guarantee.   No tax payer subsidy is needed.

 

Effective October 1st, the guarantee fee for SBA 7(a) loans are:

-loans of $500,000 or less: 0.00%:

-loans of $500,001 to $700,000: 0.55% of the guaranteed portion.

-loans of $700,001 to $1,000,000: 1.05% of the guaranteed portion.

-loans $1,000,001 to $5,000,000: 3.5% of the guaranteed portion up to $1,000,000, plus 3.75% of the guaranteed portion over $1,000,000.

 

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 6.25%

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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for September

 

For 20 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 4.10% but note rate is 4.16% and the effective yield is 5.343%.

For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 4.26% but note rate is 4.30% and the effective yield is 5.44%.

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE

 

One profligate propaedeutic is that there is a trade-off between jobs and inflation.

 

The Phillips Curve, named after New Zealand economist A. W. Phillips, misconstrues a supposed correlation between unemployment and inflation as a causal relation.

 

When he won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1976, Milton Freidman in his acceptance speech titled Inflation and Unemployment made it clear there is no tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.

 

Freidman had promulgated that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” and said central bankers should prevent the supply of money from growing faster than economic output.

 

The growth rate of all the dollars in circulation (“M2 Money Supply”) soared a historic record 27% in 2020.

 

To put that in perspective, this increase in M2 Money Supply is the biggest jump in America’s history. That is bigger than the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 (10%), bigger than World War II (18%), and bigger than FDR’s stimulus to fight the Great Depression (10%).

 

The recent increases by the Federal Reserve in the fed funds rate has moderated the changes in the M2 money supply.   M2 actually decreased by over $300 billion in May with nominal increases in June and July and no increase in August.      As a result month by month changes in the consumer price index over the last quarter has also plateaued.

 

As for jobs, initial claims for unemployment fell again last week, rapidly approaching the lowest levels seen early this year. Overall, claims remain historically low, and are headed lower again after trending higher from May through July. Claims suggest the labor market remains tight.  All signs point to continued tightness in the labor market, despite weaker growth.

 

Keep your eyes and ears open for this week’s report on employment for the month of September.

 

Here are the latest jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

August  315,000

July        526,000

June      293,000

May       386,000

April      368,000

March     398,000

February  714,000

January  504,000

2021       6,400,000

2020    -9,370,000

2019     2,108,000

2018      2,679,000

2017      2,110,000

2016      2,160,000

2015     2,740,000

2014     3,116,000

2013     2,074,000

2012     2,193,000

2011     2,103,000

2010    1,022,000

2009    -5,052,000

2008    -3,617,000

2007    1,115,000

2006    2,071,000

2005    2,484,000

2004    2,019,000

 

What does all this mean?

 

I don't know.

 

Next week on Thursday there will be an auction of 30 year Treasury bonds.   At last month’s auction of 30 year Treasury bonds, the high yield was awarded at 3.511 percent, up from 3.106 percent at last month’s auction.      The 30 year Treasury yield is now at 3.77%.

 

For all the talk of an inverted yield curve, the 3 month and 10 year yields have not inverted.   The last time they inverted was back in 2019.

 

On the same day, the consumer price index will also come out.   While year over year price increases will be reflected, it is important to actually note the month to month change.

 

Eurodollar futures settle at a three- month lending rate that has averaged about 22 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 plus years.

 

The December 2022 implied rate is now at 4.73% up from 4.454% just last month and up from only 0.17% in October.

 

 

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OFF BASE

 

It is not propaganda when the Federal Reserve promulgates official holidays.    A three day weekend approaches!

 

The Federal Reserve has proscribed banks from being opened on the following days:

Columbus Day October 10

Veterans Day November 11

Thanksgiving Day November 24

Christmas Day December 25