Monday, September 13, 2021

The SBA and prognathous

 prognathous

PROG-nuh-thuhs, prog-NAY-thuhs

1. Protruding outwards.

2. Having a jaw that protrudes outwards.

 From Greek pro- (before) + gnathos (jaw).

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TIP OF THE WEEK

 

A punch to the jaw for 504 loans.    The SBA 504 loan program has reached its lending cap for the current fiscal year (which ends September 30) which will cause a lapse in issuing loan approvals.

 

SBA is still able to authorize 504 debt refinance projects WITHOUT expansion as there are ample funds available in this part of the 504 program.

 

504 debt refinance WITH expansion will have to wait for the new fiscal year.   Borrowers may want to procrastinate on 504 debt refinance with expansion since the debt to be refinanced may not exceed 100% of the new expansion costs.

 

As Mike Tyson once said, “"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

 

To help borrowers punched in the mouth by the pandemic,  SBA last Thursday announced changes to the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) program, including raising the loan cap from $500,000 to $2 million and adding business debt payments to the list of ways businesses can use the loan proceeds.

 

SBA also announced that the guaranty fee on 7(a) loans of $350,000 or less will remain at zero (0.00%) for the next year.

 

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%

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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for September For 20 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 1.38% but note rate is 1.406% and the effective yield is 2.860%.

For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 1.56% but note rate is 1.58% and the effective yield is 2.977%.

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE

 

The pronunciamento from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, a drop from the July total of 1,053,000 nonfarm jobs.

 

Do you ever wonder why they do NONFARM payroll employment?  Why aren’t farmers included in monthly jobs data?

 

The collection, dissemination, and use of agricultural labor data is complicated by several factors that relate to the structure of the agricultural industry and the characteristics of its workers. There is also considerable seasonal fluctuation in agricultural employment, with wide variations in peak employment by type of commodity and region.  Agricultural labor data are affected by the unknown number of undocumented workers in the field—literally.

 

But fear not, those farming fanatics who are interested in such jobs statistics. The Department of Agriculture tracks farm labor

 

In the 1950s, there were almost 10 million U.S. farmworkers. But the latest farm labor report from the USDA, released May 2021, showed only 613,000 workers employed on U.S. farms and ranches.

 

That’s just a drop in the bucket from the latest BLS jobs report (released in September 2021), which showed total nonfarm payroll employment at more than 153 million people in the United States.

 

For what it is worth, Here is a summary of net payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

 

August      235,000

July         1,053,000

June         962,000

May         614,000

April       269,000

March      916,000

February  468,000

January    233,000

December -306,000

November  245,000

October  610,000

September 711,000

August   1,489,000

July         1,761,000

June      4,791,000

May       2,725,000

April       -20,700,000

March     -1,400,000

February  275,000

January   214,000

2019     2,108,000

2018      2,679,000

2017      2,110,000

2016      2,160,000

2015     2,740,000

2014     3,116,000

2013     2,074,000

2012     2,193,000

2011     2,103,000

2010    1,022,000

2009    -5,052,000

2008    -3,617,000

2007    1,115,000

2006    2,071,000

2005    2,484,000

2004    2,019,000

 

What does all this mean?

 

I don't know.

 

So far, the U.S. has recovered 17 million, or 76%, of the 22.4 million jobs lost in the spring of last year, leaving the nation 5.3 million jobs below its pre-pandemic level.

 

Currently 11,930,415 people are receiving benefits for insured unemployment or Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

 

The prospicient long term treasury bond market promulgated a procellous prognostication at last week’s auction of $24 billion in 30 year treasury bonds when the high yield was only 1.910 percent, down 13 basis points from the prior month’s auction.

 

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OFF BASE

 

Prognathous promulgations by Charles Darwin where he thought prognathous jaws reflected racial inferiority caused his half cousin Francis Galton to disagree with him.   Darwin being unaware of Gregor Mendel’s experiments with peas prompted Galton to do his own experiments.

 

Galton first discovered regression by experimenting with sweet peas. His sweet peas produced seeds with a (normal) variation of sizes that regressed from the distribution of their parents.

 

The statistical term “regression,” from a Latin root meaning “going back,” was first used by Francis Galton in his paper “Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.”

 

Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme.

 

For Galton, “regression” referred only to the tendency of extreme data values to "revert" to the overall mean value.

 

A good example is the following series of numbers which could represent anything, economic growth, sales projections or virus outbreaks:

 

2, 4, 6.

 

Quick what should the next number be?   My immediate reaction is to say 8 who do we appreciate, yell out Solons and throw my mitt in the air.

 

A regression to the mean would suggest the correct answer is probably somewhere between 4 and 6.    The mean of 2, 4, 6 is 4.  Mean is given by dividing the sum of observations by the number of observations  (2 + 4 + 6)/3 = 4.

 

Regression to the mean should be understood and appreciated.    That’s why Shohei Ohtani’s season this year is special and we should not worry about the price of lumber or anything else for that matter.

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