Monday, June 16, 2014

The SBA and brouhaha

brouhaha
BROO-ha-ha, broo-ha-HA, broo-HA-ha
Noise, confusion, and excitement, especially over something insignificant.
An alteration of the Hebrew term barukh habba (welcome, literally, "blessed be the one who comes").

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

A brouhaha erupted recently as the Small Business Administration becomes un-pervicacious with the lender explicitly calculating a borrower’s ability to repay proposed loans of $350,000 and less.  Effective July 1st, SBA Information Notice 5000-1314 declares that the Small 7(a) loan credit scoring model satisfies the requirement that the lender demonstrate the applicant’s ability to repay the loan with earnings from the business.   The credit score alone is enough.  Verifications of IRS income tax returns are still required however and if anything in the lender’s financial analysis demonstrates that the Small Business Applicant lacks reasonable assurance of repayment in a timely manner from the cash flow of the business, the loan request must still be declined, regardless of the collateral available or outside sources of cash.

Another brouhaha is also coming on franchise eligibility determinations!

_____________________________________
Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2014 = 3.15%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2014 = 5.31%
________________________________________

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is only 2.99% but note rate is 3.04% and the effective yield is 5.069%.
 ________________________________________________

AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 
No brouhaha is expected once the Federal Reserve meets this week on interest rates.

The last time the Federal Open Market Committee met on monetary policy they said that they might have to keep “the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”

So where then are interest rates going?

Eurodollar futures settle at a three- month lending rate that has averaged about 22 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.

Here is a summary of what the market expects for Eurodollar futures based upon the pit-traded prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange:

DEC14- 0.29
DEC15- 1.01
DEC16- 2.10
DEC17- 2.90
DEC18- 3.41
DEC19- 3.78
DEC20- 4.04

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Traders are betting the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates any time soon.

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OFF BASE
Where’s the brouhaha over hurricane season?
The eastern Pacific has never witnessed storms so strong so early.  First, hurricane Amanda became the strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific on record, when its peak winds soared to 155 mph (high-end category 4 level) on May 25. Now, just over two weeks later, the eastern Pacific has given birth to the powerhouse hurricane Cristina whose maximum sustained winds also reached 155 mph!
Forecasters have called for an active eastern Pacific hurricane season due to the expectation of El NiƱo conditions which elevate ocean temperatures (in the tropical Pacific).
The lack of a brouhaha might all be in their names.  People don’t take hurricanes as seriously if they have a feminine name and the consequences are deadly, finds a new groundbreaking study.

Female-named storms have historically killed more because people neither consider them as risky nor take the same precautions, the study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concludes.  Researchers at the University of Illinois and Arizona State University examined six decades of hurricane death rates according to gender, spanning  1950 and 2012.  Of the 47 most damaging hurricanes, the female-named hurricanes produced an average of 45 deaths compared to 23 deaths in male-named storms, or almost double the number of fatalities.  The difference in death rates between genders was even more pronounced when comparing strongly masculine names versus strongly feminine ones.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

SBA 7(a) Loan Rate Update

Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2014 = 3.15%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2014 = 5.31%
Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good for the Economy

SBA 7(a) loan approvals totaled $1,782,874,000 for the month of May.  This is a 12% increase over April's 7(a) loan approvals and a 49% increase over approvals for the month of January.

This makes it the fifth straight month of improving SBA 7(a) loan volume:

May                       $1,782,874,000
April                     $1,591,774,000
March                   $1,590,460,000
February             $1,323,495,000
January               $1,193,005,000


Keep in mind that the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan approvals and our economy's Gross Domestic Product is a statistically significant 0.86. 

Monday, June 2, 2014

The SBA and pervicacious

pervicacious
puhr-vi-KAY-shuhs 
Very stubborn.
From Latin pervicax (stubborn).
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TIP OF THE WEEK 

The Small Business Administration is avulsing itself of its pervicacious propensities with its latest improvements to the SOP (Standard Operating Procedures).

The pervicaciousness continues somewhat as there are just over 100 days until the next SOP comes out.

Borrowers however should not be pervicacious about SBA loans with more money available at better terms than conventional financing.

_____________________________________
Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2014 = 3.15%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2014 = 5.39%
________________________________________

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for May
The debenture rate is only 3.00% but note rate is 3.05% and the effective yield is 5.08%.
 ________________________________________________

AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 
Is the economy being pervicacious?

The U.S. economy suffered its first contraction since 2011 in the first quarter of 2013. 

Gross domestic product fell at a 1 percent annualized rate according to revised Commerce Department figures.  

The advance estimate originally had the economy crawling along at only a 0.1 percent rate.  This revised decline was due to a drop in inventory.  Stockpiles grew at less than half the pace than in the final three months of 2013, lopping 1.6 percentage points off GDP.  Change in private inventories tends to bounce around quarter-to-quarter so this is more of a statistically aberration than anything else.

You can not be pervivacious about any of the numbers on the economy.

For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month revised up the change in jobs for March from 192,000 to 203,000 while February was bumped up to 222,000 from 197,000.  With these revisions, employment gains in February and March were 36,000 higher than previously reported.

The U.S. also added 288,000 nonfarm jobs in April.  This was the most in more than two years.

Keep your eyes and ears open for Friday’s report on jobs for May.

Here is a summary of net payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

April          288,000
March        203,000
February      222,000
January     144,000
2013     2,074,000
2012     2,193,000
2011      2,103,000
2010     1,022,000
2009     -5,052,000
2008     -3,617,000
2007    1,115,000
2006     2,071,000
2005     2,484,000
2004     2,019,000

What does this mean?

I don’t know.

Through the first four months of 2014, the economy has added 857,000 payroll jobs - slightly better than during the same period in 2013 (there were 821,000 payroll jobs added during the first four months of 2013).  Total nonfarm U.S. employment is currently 113 thousand below the pre-recession peak.  With the release of the May employment report next Friday, total employment will probably be at an all time high.

Despite this, the labor force shrank by more than 800,000 in April. The so-called participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 62.8 percent, matching the lowest level since 1978, from 63.2 percent a month earlier.  Even the strongest job growth in more than two years isn’t enough to entice more people into the labor force, one of the biggest conundrums of the U.S. economic expansion.

As a result, the Federal Reserve will remain pervicacious about keeping interest rates low.

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OFF BASE
June 6th marks the 70th anniversary of the D Day invasion.
June 6, 1944, 160,000 Allied troops landed along a 50-mile stretch of heavily-fortified French coastline to fight Nazi Germany on the beaches of Normandy, France.
More than 9,000 Allied Soldiers were killed or wounded in the first few hours but they were pervicacious with the assault and more than 150,000 soldiers began the march across Europe to defeat Hitler.
Have you ever wondered what the D in D Day meant?

The most ordinary and likely of explanations is the one offered by the U.S. Army in their published manuals. The Army began using the codes "H-hour" and "D-day" during World War I to indicate the time or date of an operation's start. Military planners would write of events planned to occur on "H-hour" or "D-day" -- long before the actual dates and times of the operations would be known, or in order to keep plans secret. And so the "D" may simply refer to the "day" of invasion.

Monday, May 19, 2014

The SBA and avulse

avulse
uh-VUHLS
To pull off or tear away.
From Latin avellere (to tear off), from a- (away from) + vellere (to pull, pluck).
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TIP OF THE WEEK 

Several pages have been avulsed recently from SBA’s playbook the SOP (Standard Operating Procedures) making it easier and easier for both borrowers and lenders to participate in the SBA’s loan programs.

Industrial real estate’s avulsion from the recession appears complete.  According to CoStar, vacancies now sit lower than pre-recession levels in the industrial property sector. 
If you would like a copy of CoStar’s Commercial Real Estate Sales Indices report for May 2014, let me know.

_____________________________________
Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2014 = 3.15%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2014 = 5.39%
________________________________________

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for May
The debenture rate is only 3.00% but note rate is 3.05% and the effective yield is 5.08%.
 ________________________________________________

AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 
Will the Federal Reserve ever avulse itself of low interest rates?

The last time the Federal Open Market Committee met on monetary policy they said that they might have to keep “the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.” 

Keep your eyes and ears open for this week’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s last meeting on monetary policy.  Ever since the Fed moved up the release of the minutes to three weeks after a meeting from six in January 2005, people parse each word looking for clues to policy.  This became a habit after former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan once remarked:
                “ I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant”

The bond market does not seem to think interest rates are going up anytime soon.

At last week’s $16 billion dollar auction of 30 year Treasury bonds, the 30 year bond sold at a yield of 3.44%.

The long bond yield has dropped more than 50 basis points since the start of the year. April’s $13 billion auction of 30 year Treasury bonds sold at a yield of 3.525%.  In March the auction drew a yield of 3.630% compared to February’s yield of 3.69%.  January’s auction sold at a yield of 3.899% compared to December’s 3.90%.  

Here is what the 30 year Treasury bond has been doing and this week’s interesting little table:
2001- 5.49
2002- 5.43
2003- ND
2004- ND
2005- ND
2006- 4.91
2007- 4.84
2008- 4.18
2009- 3.89
2010- 4.61
2011- 2.89
2012- 2.77
2013- 3.25

The 30 year Treasury bond is currently at 3.34 percent.

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Traders are betting the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates any time soon.

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OFF BASE
We should all be avulsing ourselves from work and the office this Monday as it is Memorial Day.
According to the Federal Reserve, here is our remaining holidays for 2014:
Memorial Day May 26
Independence Day July 4
Labor Day September 1
Columbus Day October 13
Veterans Day November 11
Thanksgiving Day November 27
Christmas Day December 25 

To many this marks the beginning of summer although technically summer really does not start until June 21st, the summer solstice, which is the day with the most hours of sunlight during the whole year.  After that, the days start getting shorter and shorter.

To all of us, it should be a day to remember those who died serving our country. The holiday, which is celebrated every year on the final Monday of May, was formerly known as Decoration Day and originated after the American Civil War to commemorate the Union and Confederate soldiers who died in the Civil War. 

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for May

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for May       

The debenture rate is only 3.00% but note rate is 3.05% and the effective yield is 5.08%.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

SBA 7(a) Loan Rate Update

Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2014 = 3.15%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2014 = 5.39%
Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.

Monday, May 12, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good For the Economy

SBA 7(a) loan approvals totaled $357,642,000 for the week ending May 2nd.  


Year to date SBA 7(a) loan approvals are at $9,827,563,000 about 1 1/2 percent over last year.


Keep in mind that the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan approvals and our economy's Gross Domestic Product is a statistically significant 0.86. 

Friday, May 2, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good For the Economy

Things are starting to look up.  April’s SBA 7(a) loan approvals totaled $1,591,774,000 for the month ending April 30th.  That beats March by $1,314,000.

This makes it the fourth straight month of improving SBA 7(a) loan volume:

April                     $1,591,774,000
March                   $1,590,460,000
February             $1,323,495,000
January               $1,193,005,000


Keep in mind that the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan approvals and our economy's Gross Domestic Product is a statistically significant 0.86. 

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good For the Economy

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, increased at just a 0.1% annual pace for the first quarter of 2014.

That’s down from 2.6% in the fourth quarter and is the weakest pace since late 2012.

What happened?

This slowdown in GDP should not have come as a surprise to anyone who remembers that SBA 7(a) loans provide a substantial, tangible economic benefit that trickles throughout the economy.

Here is what GDP has been doing and this week’s interesting little table of data:

1st quarter 2014                0.1
4th quarter 2013              2.6%
3rd quarter 2013              4.1%
2nd quarter 2013             2.5%
1st quarter 2013              1.1
4th quarter 2012:             0.1%
3rd quarter 2012:             2.8%
2nd quarter 2012:          1.2%
1st quarter 2012:            3.7%

Contrast that with quarterly SBA 7(a) loan volume:
1st quarter 2014                $4,106,960,000
4th quarter 2013:             $3,989,696,000
3rd quarter 2013:             $5,371,662,000
2nd quarter 2013              $4,273,683,000
1st quarter 2013               $4,049,146,000

Notice the slump in 7(a) loan volume in the last quarter of 2013?  Thanks to the government shutdown back in October, SBA 7(a) loan approvals grinded to a halt and then it took some time to get back up and running.

The impact was manifested with the drop off in economic activity in the following quarter.

The correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance appears to be quite strong.  Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function. 

It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.


Tuesday, April 29, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good for the Economy

SBA 7(a) loan approvals totaled $388,467,000 for the week ending April 25th.

This is the best week of the month.

Month to date SBA 7(a) loan approvals are at $1,373,265,000.  

With three days to end the month, it might be hard to beat March's SBA 7(a) approvals of $1,590,460,000.

Keep in mind that the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan approvals and the Gross Domestic Product is a statistically significant 0.86.

Monday, April 28, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good for the Economy

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the advance estimate for first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  on Wednesday, April 30th. 

Where will it be?

Here is what GDP has been doing and this week’s interesting little table of data:

4th quarter 2013              3.2%
3rd quarter 2013              4.1%
2nd quarter 2013             1.7%
1st quarter 2013              1.1
4th quarter 2012:             0.1%
3rd quarter 2012:             2.8%
2nd quarter 2012:          1.2%
1st quarter 2012:            3.7%

Contrast that with quarterly SBA 7(a) loan volume:
1st quarter 2014                $4,106,960,000
4th quarter 2013:             $3,989,696,000
3rd quarter 2013:             $5,371,662,000
2nd quarter 2013              $4,273,683,000
1st quarter 2013               $4,049,146,000
4TH quarter 2012             $4,173,790,000
3rd quarter 2012              $4,359,166,000
2nd quarter 2012              $4,039,042,000
1st quarter 2012                 $3,443,723,000

Notice how third quarter growth in GDP had jumped over the prior period?  Same thing happened with SBA 7(a) loan volume.

SBA 7(a) loan volume then fell off to end the year.  That might trickle into the first quarter's GDP.

The correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance appears to be quite strong.  Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function. 


It came out to a statistically significant 0.86.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

SBA Loans Are Good for the Economy


SBA lenders and borrowers must have taken off for Spring break as only $316,934,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved for the week ending April 18th.  


That's a drop from the prior week's SBA 7(a) loan approvals totaling $371,645,000.  
Month to date SBA 7(a) loan approvals are at $984,798,000.  


With a week and a half to go to end the month, it will be hard to beat March's SBA 7(a) approvals of $1,590,460,000.

Keep in mind that the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan approvals and the Gross Domestic Product is a statistically significant 0.86.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The SBA and scrutate

scrutate
SKRU-tayt
To investigate.
From Latin scrutari (to examine).
 _______________________________________________

TIP OF THE WEEK 

Scrutation of the Code of Federal Regulations reveals that Section 120.102 was eliminated on April 21, 2014.  

That means the personal resources test is gone.  Owners are no longer required to inject personal liquid assets to reduce the amount of SBA guaranteed funds that would otherwise be needed.  

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate April 2014 = 3.15%
SBA Fixed Base Rate April 2014 = 5.51%
________________________________________

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for April
The debenture rate is only 3.11% but note rate is 3.16% and the effective yield is 5.192%.
 ________________________________________________

AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 
Is inflation beginning to rear its ugly head?

Not if you scrutate the data.

Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.4% annualized rate) in March.   Prices rose 1.5% for the 12 months ending in March. That is up from February’s year-over-year reading of 1.1%.  This jump from February to March is because a 0.2% drop in consumer prices in March 2012 dropped out of the calculation.

Really driving up the CPI was a 0.3% increase in shelter costs. On an annual basis, shelter costs were up 2.7%, the fastest pace in six years.

One of the Fed’s favorite gauges of the economy is the capacity utilization rate which measures how much plants and factories are being used.  The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher.   Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.  The Federal Reserve typically won’t initiate increases in interest rates until then.

Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:

1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004- 79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 66.9
2010- 74.8
2011- 76.7
2012- 79.0
2013- 77.8
2014- 79.2

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Last week the Fed reported that capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.1 percentage point to 79.2 percent.  That’s up 12.3 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 and 1.2 percentage points higher than a year prior.   Capacity utilization at 79.2% is still 0.9 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

The 30-year Treasury bond yield serves as somewhat of a long-term outlook on economic growth and inflation expectations. But the security has at times been an early indicator for movements in other Treasury maturities.  

April’s $13 billion auction of 30 year Treasury bonds sold at a yield of 3.525%.  In March the auction drew a yield of 3.630% compared to February’s yield of 3.69%.  January’s auction sold at a yield of 3.899% compared to December’s 3.90%.  

The yield curve is starting to flatten out a bit.  The slope of the yield curve—the difference between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth.  A flat curve indicates weak growth, and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong growth.

Traders are betting the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates any time soon.

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OFF BASE
Scrutating the calendar meant yesterday was a holiday.
The third Monday in April is Patriot's Day commemorating the battles of Lexington and Concord, the first military engagements of the American Revolutionary War.
The day after the battle, John Adams left his home to ride along the battlefields. He declared that "the Die was cast, the Rubicon crossed."
“Crossing the Rubicon" is a metaphor for deliberately proceeding past a point of no return. The phrase originates with Julius Caesar's seizure of power in the Roman Republic in 49 BC. Roman generals were strictly forbidden from bringing their troops into the home territory of the Republic in Italy.  Caesar led his army across the Rubicon River, crossing from Gaul into Italy. After this, if he did not triumph, he would be executed. Therefore the term "the Rubicon" is used as a synonym to the "point of no return".

"Alea iacta est" ("The die is cast"), which is reportedly what Caesar said at the crossing of the Rubicon. This metaphor comes from gambling with dice: once the die or dice have been thrown, all bets are irrevocable, even before the dice have come to rest.