Proficient
proFISHant
competent or skilled in doing or using something.
from Latin pro- ("forward") and facere
("to make, do"), meaning someone skilled who moves forward or
succeeds in a task
_____________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
Proficiency with SBA lending requires knowing SOP
50-10-8.
It has a prolix 163,291 words. 467 pages.
The guidance manual for SSBCI guarantees has only 6,742
words. Only 22 pages.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 6.75%
________________________________________
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for January
For 20 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 4.72%
but note rate is 4.79013% and the effective yield is 6.065%.
For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 4.72%
but note rate is 4.77119% and the effective yield is 5.856%.
_______________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Is the Bureau of Labor Statistics being proficient with
their reporting on employment?
Total payrolls increased by 50 thousand in December.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for
October was revised down by 68,000, from -105,000 to -173,000, and the change
for November was revised down by 8,000, from +64,000 to +56,000.
With these revisions, employment in October and November
combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported.
Last year the March 2024 total nonfarm payroll employment
level was revised downward by 598,000.
Don’t question the probity of the BLS.
Revisions are part of the normal process used to gauge
job gains and losses in the U.S.
Over the prior 10 years, absolute benchmark revisions
have averaged 0.1 percent, with a range from < 0.05 percent to 0.3 percent.
Benchmark revisions are a standard part of the payroll survey estimation
process. The benchmark adjustment represents a once-a-year re-anchoring, based
on March data, of sample-based employment estimates to full population counts
available through Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records filed by nearly all
employers with State Workforce Agencies.
The next benchmark revision comes out in two months.
Here are the latest jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
2025
594,000
2024 2,230,000
2023 2,700,000
2022 4,810,000
2021
7,270,000
2020 -9,370,000
2019 2,108,000
2018 2,679,000
2017 2,110,000
2016 2,160,000
2015 2,740,000
2014 3,116,000
2013 2,074,000
2012 2,193,000
2011 2,103,000
2010 1,022,000
2009 -5,052,000
2008 -3,617,000
2007 1,115,000
2006 2,071,000
2005 2,484,000
2004 2,019,000
What does all this mean?
I don't know.
The economy has only added 93 thousand jobs since April
(8 months).
This brings the monthly average change in nonfarm
payrolls to a decrease of 22,000 compared to increases of 111,000 in the first
quarter, 55, 000 in the second quarter, and 51,000 in the third quarter. Some
of the weakness in the fourth quarter can be attributed to the government
shutdown which encompassed October and the first days of November. However,
even allowing for that, hiring continues its downward trend.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 9th and 10th
meeting on monetary policy reflect divisions among committee participants as to
the proper path of monetary policy to achieve the dual mandate for maximum
employment and price stability.
The next meeting is January 27-28, 2026.
__________________________________________
OFF BASE
A three day weekend approaches!
The Federal Reserve has proscribed banks from being open
on the following days:
Martin Luther King, Jr.'s Birthday January 19
Washington's Birthday February 16
Memorial Day May 25
Juneteenth June 19 Independence Day Fourth of July
Labor Day September 7
Columbus Day October 12
Thanksgiving November 26
Christmas December 25
