Monday, June 12, 2017

The SBA and boycott

to combine in abstaining from, or preventing dealings with, as a means of intimidation or coercion
Eponym for Charles Boycott an Irish land agent.  After Boycott refused to reduce Irish farmer’s land rents, they refused to harvest the crops.  


No travel boycotts.  The US hotel industry reported positive results during the week of May 21 through the 27th.

Occupancy increased ½ percent while average daily rate and revenues per available room also increased 2.5 and 3 percent respectively compared to the same period a year ago.

Hotels and motels are the single biggest recipients of SBA 7(a) loans based upon total dollars.

Lenders and borrowers are also enthusiastically embracing SBA 7(a) loans as SBA 7(a) loan volume heading into the Memorial Day weekend was up about 8 percent from last year.


SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2017 =4.08%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2017 = 6.08%
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for May
The debenture rate is only 2.84% but note rate is 2.888% and the effective yield is 4.625%.

China is no longer boycotting US Treasury bonds.  

It appears that China is prepared to increase its holdings of U.S. Treasuries after cutting them by about $200 billion over the course of last year.  Signs of renewed appetite from the biggest foreign owner of Treasuries after Japan may help cushion the $14 trillion Treasuries market as the Federal Reserve debates unwinding its massive bond portfolio and gradually increasing the federal funds rate.

Just before the Federal Reserve meets this week on interest rates, the Treasury Department will auction off more than $84 billion of U.S. government paper, which could drive yields higher.  The new supply would need to be discounted to match the higher-returns of bonds issued after the widely anticipated rate hike.  The proximity of Treasury auctions to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on June 13 and June 14, where a rate increase is expected, could encourage a selloff of U.S. government paper.

Keep your eyes and ears open for this week’s $12 billion auction of 30 year Treasury bonds.

Here is what the 30 year Treasury bond has been doing and this week’s interesting little table:
2001- 5.49
2002- 5.43
2003- ND
2004- ND
2005- ND
2006- 4.91
2007- 4.84
2008- 4.18
2009- 3.89
2010- 4.61
2011- 2.89
2012- 2.77
2013- 3.25
2014- 3.97
2015- 2.91
2016- 2.32

Wait a minute, why no numbers for 2003, 2004, and 2005?

One month after the 9/11 attacks, the Treasury 30 year bond is discontinued. When the Treasury mothballed the 30-year bond in 2001, experts speculated it was trying to drive down long-term interest rates, which had remained stubbornly high while the Federal Reserve was slashing short-term interest rates to revive the economy. When the Treasury discontinued the 30-year bond in 2001, its yield fell 35 basis points in one day. Why? A shrinking supply of the 30-year Treasury bond caused increased demand to drive rates down.

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

At last month’s auction of 30 year Treasury bonds, the high yield was 3.050 percent.  Since then the 30 year Treasury bond has drifted down to around 2.85 percent, the lowest since President Donald Trump’s election victory on Nov. 8.   The real 30-year yield -- which subtracts the level of inflation based on the core Consumer Price Index -- is hovering near the lowest level since 1980.

The 30 year Treasury auction is Tuesday.  The Federal Reserve meets the next day.

The long end of the yield curve as reflected in 30 year Treasury bond appear to be enervating any splenetic presentiment of a bigly recrudescence in interest rates by being quiescent.

A boycott grew to become the American Revolution.

During the French-Indian war, Britain decided that the way to recover its losses was to impose taxes on the colonies with the Stamp Act. This act required the colonists to pay a tax, represented by a stamp on legal documents.  The colonies didn’t like that idea, and were especially offended by their lack of representation during the decision making, leading to the slogan "no taxation without representation."  They fought back by initially boycotting British goods.  The boycotts escalated to rebels terrorizing British stamp agents into resigning. This desire for autonomy led to further revolts, and eventually the American Revolution.

We now celebrate that initial American boycott on the 4th of July which will be here in just a few weeks.  It is on a Tuesday so you may need to boycott work on Monday, July 3rd.

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