propulsive
pro·pul·sive
having the quality of driving or pushing forward
Latin prōpulsus, past participle of prōpellere "to
push or thrust forward, compel to go onward"
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TIP OF THE WEEK
There is a propulsive increase in the alternative size
standard for SBA loan applicants.
Effective March 18, 2024, under the alternative size
standard, a business, including any affiliates, will be considered small if its
tangible net worth is not in excess of $20 million (up from $15 million), and
its average net income after Federal income taxes (excluding any carry over
losses) for the preceding two completed fiscal years is not in excess of $6.5
million (up from $5 million).
This is a 34.46 percent adjustment for inflation that has
occurred since the establishment of the statutory alternative size standard in
2010.
Prodigious.
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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 8.50%
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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for March
For 20 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 4.98%
but note rate is 5.05255% and the effective yield is 6.365%.
For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 4.97%
but note rate is 5.022257% and the effective yield is 6.286%.
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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Propulsive and propitious.
Jobless claims remain steady and low, indicative of
strong demand for labor and posing no threat to restrictive monetary policy.
Initial claims fell 1,000 in the March 14 week to a
lower-than-expected 209,000 that pulls the 4-week average slightly lower to
208,000, among the lowest readings so far this year.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in
February.
The monthly average for nonfarm payrolls for the first
quarter to-date is 252,000 compared to 212,000 for the fourth quarter 2023.
Here are the latest jobs numbers from the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
2023 2,700,000
2022 4,810,000
2021
7,270,000
2020 -9,370,000
2019 2,108,000
2018 2,679,000
2017 2,110,000
2016 2,160,000
2015 2,740,000
2014 3,116,000
2013 2,074,000
2012 2,193,000
2011 2,103,000
2010 1,022,000
2009 -5,052,000
2008 -3,617,000
2007 1,115,000
2006 2,071,000
2005 2,484,000
2004 2,019,000
What does all this mean?
I don't know.
One profligate propaedeutic has been that there is a
trade-off between jobs and inflation.
On Thursday, the 30 year Treasury auction high yield was
at at 4.331 percent versus 4.360 percent in February and 4.229 percent in
January.
The Federal Reserve looks closely at both industrial
production and capacity utilization for prospicient prognostications.
The Federal Reserve watches this report closely to see if
production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures.
Normally the Fed does not feel there are inflationary
pressures until the capacity utilization rate is about 82%.
Capacity utilization was unchanged at 78.3 percent in
February from January.
In February, manufacturing capacity rose to 77.0 percent
from 76.4 percent in the prior month, mining to 93.8 percent after 91.7
percent, with utilities down to 67.8 percent after 73.5 percent.
Utilities output was lower due to milder weather
conditions after colder weather in January. The index for electricity fell 6.5
percent in February with natural gas utilities down 13.0 percent.
The Federal Reserve’s next meeting on monetary policy is
March 19th and 20th.
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OFF BASE
One of the most famous prognostications of all time was
from the soothsayer in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar in Act I, scene 2, line 103
when he said “Beware the ides of March.”
So what the heck is an ide?
The Ides Of March refers to how the Romans kept track of
the days in a month, which is quite different from how we do it. While we count
the days sequentially from the first day all the way to the last day, the
Romans used a different system. They counted backward from three fixed points
of the month. For instance, the Nones usually fell on the 7th, the Ides on the
15th and the Kalends was the beginning of the month.
It is now known as the day Caesar was assassinated. After being warned, Caesar took the prophecy
very lightly. In fact, as he passed the seer on his way to the Theater of
Pompey where he ends being stabbed to death by Brutus and 60 other
Senators, Caesar commented that “The
Ides of March have come.” To that, the seer is reported to have replied, “Aye,
Caesar; but they have not gone.”
