Monday, January 13, 2020

The SBA and PROcellous 

Stormy, as the sea.
From Latin procellosus (stormy), from procella (storm)


A procellous prolepsis proliferates over the promulgation of SOP 50-10-6 despite prodigious prodnosing for an official prolegomenon from the SBA.


SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for December For 20 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 2.26% but note rate is 2.30% and the effective yield is 3.582%.
For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 2.38% but note rate is 2.41% and the effective yield is 3.643%.

Procellous and profligate pronouncements ended at the Federal Reserve’s last meeting on interest rates.

After dropping interest rates three times last year, the Fed kept rates the same and removed the phrase "uncertainties about this outlook" which was part of the statements in the prior three meetings all of which produced incremental 25-basis-point rate cuts.

On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the economy added 145,000 jobs in December, down from the 256,000 added in November.

Here is a summary of net payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

December   145,000
November  256,000
October   152,000
September 180,000
August    219,000
July      166,000
June      193,000
May        62,000
April     263,000
March     189,000
February   56,000
January   311,000
2018      2,679,000
2017      2,110,000
2016      2,160,000
2015     2,740,000
2014     3,116,000
2013     2,074,000
2012     2,193,000
2011     2,103,000
2010    1,022,000
2009    -5,052,000
2008    -3,617,000
2007    1,115,000
2006    2,071,000
2005    2,484,000
2004    2,019,000

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

In 2019 the economy added 2.108 million jobs, down from 2.679 million jobs during 2018.  So job growth has slowed to an average 176,000 jobs a month in 2019 from the 223,000 average the previous year.

On Friday the Federal Reserve will report on industrial production and capacity utilization.  It is anticipated that this report will reflect further erosion in manufacturing.  One of the Fed’s favorite leading indicators on the economy is capacity utilization which measures the amount of a plant that is in use at factories, mines and utilities.  Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.  The Fed last month reported that capacity in use is at a still moderate 77.3 percent.

Federal Reserve interest rate projections indicate that rates will stay at current levels this year.

Things remain procellous.

If after finally working for a full week makes you feel a little proditomanic, a three day weekend approaches!
The Federal Reserve has promulgated that these are our holidays for 2020:
Birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr. January 20 Washington's Birthday February 17 Memorial Day May 25 Independence Day July 4 Labor Day September 7 Columbus Day October 12 Veterans Day November 11 Thanksgiving Day November 26 Christmas Day December 25

Note that Valentine’s Day is the Friday of a three day weekend.  4th of July is a Saturday, and Halloween is a Saturday.