Monday, March 9, 2015

The SBA and triskaidekaphobia



Fear of the number 13.
From Greek treiskaideka (thirteen), from treis (three) + kai (and) + deka (ten) + phobia (fear).


13 is an important number for SBA loans.

The Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) is a public record of all permanent rules and regulations published by the executive departments and federal agencies of the U.S. government.

The code is broken up into 50 titles that cover a broad range of topics subject to federal regulation.

Title 13 of the CFR deals with business credit and assistance and governs the SBA.

Interpretation of Title 13 of the CFR is left to SOP 50-10-5(G). 


SBA LIBOR Base Rate March 2015 = 3.17%
SBA Fixed Base Rate March 2015 = 5.15%
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for February      

The debenture rate is only 2.46% but note rate is 2.51% and the effective yield is 4.546%.       


Will 13 be the economy’s lucky number?

For the last 12 months in a row, the economy has added at least 200,000 jobs.  This is the longest streak since 1995.

In February, jobs increased 295,000.  New jobs are now 2.8 million above the previous peak.

Over the last week, the 30 year Treasury bond yield has increased 12.4 basis points to 2.841%.

The slope of the yield curve—the difference between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth. The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year.  More generally, a flat curve indicates weak growth and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong growth.

Keep your eyes and ears open for this week’s auction of the 30 year Treasury bond.

Here is what the 30 year Treasury bond has been doing and this week’s interesting little table:
2001- 5.49
2002- 5.43
2003- ND
2004- ND
2005- ND
2006- 4.91
2007- 4.84
2008- 4.18
2009- 3.89
2010- 4.61
2011- 2.89
2012- 2.77
2013- 3.25
2014- 3.97

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

The yield on the 30-year bond ended the year at only 2.74 percent.  It was at 3.97 percent in January of 2014.

Last month’s auction of $16 billion in 30-year bonds yielded only 2.56 percent.

A flattening of the curve may be an expectation of rising short-term rates at a time when inflation is still low. 

The Federal Reserve meets next week.

Not only is there a word for fear of the number 13, there is a word for the fear of Friday the 13th.  It is friggatriskaidekaphobia.
This has been a tough year for friggatriskaidekapobics.
Friday the 13th appears three times in the 2015 calendar.
February 13, 2015 was the first appearance of the day. Because February is 28 days, expect March to follow the exact same pattern. That means the second Friday the 13th will appear just 4 weeks after the first one on March 13, 2015.
That’s right, this Friday is another Friday the 13th.
Luckily for those with is friggatriskaidekaphobia, there is a long break between the second and third dates. The third Friday the 13th just narrowly missed October, which would have been fitting for the month of Halloween and perfect for a “Friday the 13th” movie marathon. Instead, the date falls two weeks before Thanksgiving on November 13, 2015.
The odds of Friday the 13th happening three times in one year aren’t that uncommon, but it won’t happen again for a while. The last time this happened was in 2012, and the next time it’ll take place is 2026.  Those who are terrified by the idea of three Friday the 13ths will be happy to know that 2016 will only have one in May.

Triskaidekaphobia stems from the belief that the 13th guest to attend the Last Supper was thought to be the same person who betrayed Jesus prior to his death. His death, coincidentally, is said to have occurred on a Friday.

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