The SBA and wassail

wassail

(WOS-uhl, wo-SAYL) 

To toast.

To go from house to house singing carols at Christmas.

noun:

  1. A toast to someone's health.

  2. A festivity with much drinking.

  3. A drink for toasting, especially spiced ale.

  4. The singing of Christmas carols going from house to house.

From Old Norse ves heill (be well).

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

The time to wassail is upon us.  

The 328 revisions to SBA’s Standard Operating Procedures will be in effect in just a few hebdomads (Bonus word!  A hebdomad (HEB-duh-mad) is a group of seven, or a period of seven days; a week.   It’s from the Latin hebdomas, from Greek hepta (seven)).   If you are too busy wassailing and don’t have a handle on all these pending changes to SBA lending, we’ve got it covered: www.sbapro.com

The FDIC just released its Quarterly Banking Profile for the third quarter.

For the first time in 17 quarters — since the second quarter of 2009 — earnings registered a year-over-year decline.

Lenders however doing SBA loans are enjoying substantial premiums from the sale of guaranteed portions that can be recognized as immediate fee income.

Let me know if you would like a copy of the latest FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile.

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2013 = 3.17%
SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2013 = 5.31%

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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for November 

The debenture rate is only 3.38% but note rate is 3.44% and the effective yield is 5.459%

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

The Federal Reserve keeps telling us that the economy “has been expanding at a MODERATE pace.” 

That’s an improvement from the MODEST pace they mentioned last July.  I’m still not sure what the difference is between moderate and modest.  Minutes however from their last meeting on monetary policy gave us a hint on what modest is.    They said that “Consumer price inflation continued to be MODEST.”  So what is MODEST consumer price inflation?

Last month, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers fell 0.1% (-0.7% annualized rate) in October. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (1.5% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.   These measures indicate inflation remains well below the Fed's target (2%).

That means the focus of the Federal Reserve will continue to be jobs.

Keep your eyes and ears open on this week’s jobs report.  

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

October 204,000

September 163,000

August 238,000

July 104,000

June 172,000

May 176,000

April 165,000

March 88,000

February 332,000

January 148,000

2012

December 155,000

November 161,000

October 137,000

September 114,000

August 142,000

July 181,000

June 45,000

May 77,000

April 68,000

March 143,000

February 240,000

January 243,000

2011

December 203,000

November 157,000

October 112,000

September 158,000

August 104,000

July 127,000

June 20,000

May 25,000

April 232,000

March 194,000

February 235,000

January 68,000

2010

December 121,000

November 93,000

October 210,000

September (41,000)

August (1,000)

July (66,000)

June (175,000)

May 431,000

April 218,000

March 230,000

February (36,000)

January (26,000)

2009

December (150,000)

November (11,000)

October (111,000)

September (215,000)

August (201,000)

July (304,000)

June (443,000)

May (322,000)

April (504,000)

March (699,000)

February (651,000)

January (655,000)

2008

December (681,000)

November (597,000)

October (423,000)

September (403,000)

August (127,000)

July (67,000)

June (100,000)

May (47,000)

April (67,000)

March (88,000)

February- (83,000)

January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

At the current pace of job growth, it would take more than six years to get back to pre-recession employment levels.  The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks on monetary policy and they have made it clear that they won’t even consider raising interest rates until unemployment improves.   The monthly job gains reported by the Labor Department have steadily slowed this year, averaging 207,000 in the first quarter, 182,000 in the second quarter and 168,000 in the third quarter.  

It would appear that interest rates won’t be going up anytime soon.  Now that’s something to wassail about.

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OFF BASE

The drink of wassail, a hot mulled cider, was traditionally drunk as an integral part of wassailing; an ancient southern English drinking ritual intended to ensure a good cider apple harvest the following year.  The tradition of wassailing now falls into two distinct categories: The House-Visiting wassail and the Orchard-Visiting wassail.   The Orchard-Visiting wassail refers to the ancient custom of visiting orchards in cider-producing regions of England and singing to the trees to promote a good harvest for the coming year.  The House-Visiting wassail is the practice of people going door-to-door singing Christmas carols.

Wassailing even shows up in Hamlet Act 1, Scene 4:

"The king doth wake to-night, and takes his rouse,  

Keeps wassel."  

Hamlet is observing that his uncle is giving himself up to jollity.   We should all give ourselves up to jollity this time of year.  

Keep on wassailing.