Monday, June 3, 2013

The SBA and nihilarian



One who does useless work.

From Latin nihil (nothing).



SBA lenders are not nihilarians.   

SBA 7(a) loans account for most long term loans made to small businesses.   
When comparing SBA term loans with bank CALL report term loans, SBA loans account for as much as 70% of all long term loans made to small businesses.  
The correlation of SBA 7(a) loan approvals with our nation's economic performance is strong.

Just for fun I calculated the correlation coefficient between SBA 7(a) loan volume and GDP for over six years using the Microsoft CORREL function. 

It came out to a statistically significant 0.86. 

SBA lending is now up over 20% from last year!


SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2013 = 3.20%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2013 = 4.52%

Debenture Rate for May   

The debenture rate is 2.07% but note rate is 2.107% and effective yield is only 4.15%.


I don’t think we can call the Federal Reserve a bunch of nihilarians.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers forecast the U.S. unemployment rate will decline in the fourth quarter of 2014 to the central bank’s threshold for considering an increase in the benchmark interest rate.  The Federal Open Market Committee in December specified 6.5 percent as the level for the jobless rate that would prompt consideration of raising the Fed’s target rate, which has been near zero since December 2008.  Prior to specifying the unemployment threshold, the FOMC said the rate would be near zero through mid-2015.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate is at 7.5 percent.

Keep your eyes and ears open for Friday’s report on jobs for May.  

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

April 165,000
March 88,000
February 332,000
January 148,000
December 155,000
November 161,000
October 137,000
September 114,000
August 142,000
July 181,000
June 45,000
May 77,000
April 68,000
March 143,000
February 240,000
January 243,000
December 203,000
November 157,000
October 112,000
September 158,000
August 104,000
July 127,000
June 20,000
May 25,000
April 232,000
March 194,000
February 235,000
January 68,000
December 121,000
November 93,000
October 210,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

The U.S. still employs more than 2.5 million fewer people than when the recession began. At 180,000 jobs a month, it will take until the middle of 2014 to close that gap.

Private employment is up 2.166 million over the last year, and up 813 thousand so far in 2013 (a 2.44 million annual pace).  U.S. employers have added an average of 195,750 jobs each month this year, compared with 180,333 during the last half of 2012, based on figures from the Labor Department.   This average is skewed somewhat by the spike in numbers for February.  

It would appear that interest rates are going to remain the same, go up, or go down.
Are base stealers the nihilarians of baseball?  Especially when they get caught?

Right now, Juan Pierre has been caught 200 times stealing bases.  That’s more than anyone else playing baseball right now.  It’s number six in all of baseball history.

Juan just passed Bert Campaneris on the all-time caught stealing base record.  

Campy is probably best remembered for his antics in the 1972 American League Championship Series.  In game 2, Campaneris already had three hits, two steals and two runs when in the 7th inning he faced pitcher Lerrin LaGrow.  LaGrow's first pitch hit Campaneris in the ankle. Campaneris staggered for a moment, glared at LaGrow and then flung his bat toward LaGrow. The bat spiraled at LaGrow five feet off the ground, but LaGrow ducked, and the bat narrowly missed LaGrow, landing a few feet behind the mound.

If you feel like a nihilarian, just remember what John Wooden once said, “Don’t mistake activity for achievement.”

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