Monday, February 11, 2013

The SBA and dyspeptic



adjective: 1. Relating to or suffering from dyspepsia (indigestion).
                     2. Having a bad temper; gloomy; irritable.

noun: One suffering from dyspepsia.

Via Latin from Greek dys- (bad) + peptos (digested).



This should silence some of the dyspeptics.

Commercial real estate continues its recovery.

The CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI), which looks at more than 100,000 repeat sales, offers the broadest measure of commercial real estate repeat sales activity.

According to CoStar, commercial real has made strong gains over the last year and is now up nearly 10% from its nadir in the first quarter of 2011.

If you would like a copy of the latest CoStar report, let me know.

SBA loans can provide financing with only 10% down for owner-user commercial real estate.



SBA LIBOR Base Rate February 2013 = 3.20%
SBA Fixed Base Rate January 2013 = 4.77%

Debenture Rate for January

The debenture rate is 2.13% but note rate is 2.168% and effective yield is only 4.212%.


A somewhat dyspeptic Federal Reserve argued that "economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors".

The other transitory factors? 

Government spending cuts and slower inventory growth, which can be volatile, subtracted a combined 2.6 percentage points from GDP.  The Commerce Department said that the economy contracted at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter.  That was a sharp slowdown from the 3.1 percent growth rate in the July-September quarter.

For all of 2012, the economy expanded 2.2 percent, better than 2011's growth of 1.8 percent.

Keep your eyes and ears open for the Federal Reserve’s report on industrial production and capacity utilization.

Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:

1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004- 79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 67.3
2010- 74.8
2011- 76.7
2012- 79.0

What does all this mean?

I don't know.

The capacity utilization rate, which measures how much plants and factories are being used, is one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of the economy.

The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher.

Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.

Last month’s Fed report showed that capacity utilization, which measures the amount of a plant that is in use, was little changed at 78.8 percent from 78.7 percent.

The cost of living was little changed in December, capping the smallest annual gain in the past decade (1.7%). The unchanged reading in the consumer price index followed a 0.3 percent decrease in November, according to Labor Department figures.

Interest rates will obviously be remaining low for a long, long time.


There is nothing to be dyspeptic about.

Pitchers and catchers report.  Spring beckons.   A three day weekend approaches!

The question that will be on everyone’s mind is of course if Juan Pierre will ever, ever again hit another home run.

He hit his very first home run off Jose Lima in 2000.  But every batter who ever faced Jose Lima hit a home run off him.

Since then, Juan has only hit 17 home runs in 7,950 plate appearances.  That’s 467 at bats per home run.  Babe Ruth by comparison went 11.76 at bats per home run.

Juan by far is the active major league leader in home run futility.  His distain for the long ball extends to the outfield.  Pierre robbed Barry Bonds of a career 714th home run, which would have tied Bonds with Babe Ruth, by catching the ball right before it topped the fence.

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