Monday, October 8, 2012

The SBA and cunctator



One who hesitates; a procrastinator or delayer.

From Latin cunctari (to hesitate, delay).



The SBA, being the cunctators that they are, will not be releasing updated Standard Operating Procedures for awhile.  The once annual reshuffling of the rules has been cunctated.

They have however recently released a new policy notice revising the definition of "Rentable Property".

Policy Notice 5000-1252 allows rentable property to also include exterior space (except parking areas).  Except parking areas are allowed when it is a parking lot business.



SBA LIBOR Base Rate October 2012 = 3.21%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2012 = 4.47%

Debenture Rate for September

The debenture rate is 2.20% but note rate is 2.23936% and effective yield is only 4.279%.



Employers are still cunctating.

The economy added only 114,000 workers last month after a revised 142,000 gain in August.  The revised August gain reflected a surge in the hiring of teachers.

Speaking of teachers, here is the lesson:   only one president, Ronald Reagan, has been re-elected since World War II with unemployment above 6 percent. On Election Day 1984, the rate was at 7.2 percent, having fallen almost three percentage points in the previous 18 months.  The unemployment rate now is at 7.8 percent, the lowest since President Obama took office in January 2009.  Unemployment had been higher than 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch since monthly jobless figures were first compiled in 1948. 

This 7.8 percent unemployment rate matches the January 2009 figure.

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

September 114,000
August 142,000
July 181,000
June 45,000
May 77,000
April 68,000
March 143,000
February 240,000
January 243,000
December 203,000
November 157,000
October 112,000
September 158,000
August 104,000
July 127,000
June 20,000
May 25,000
April 232,000
March 194,000
February 235,000
January 68,000
December 121,000
November 93,000
October 210,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

The economy has only added 1.3 million payroll jobs over the first nine months of the year. At this pace, the economy would only add around 1.8 million private sector jobs in 2012; less than the 2.1 million added in 2011.

Keep your eyes and ears open for Thursday’s $13 billion sale of 30 year Treasury bonds.  At last month’s sale, the yield was up to 2.896% while the month before it was at 2.825%. 

On Friday, the 30 year Treasury yield was up to 2.97%. 

Over the past month, the yield curve has steepened somewhat. 

The slope of the yield curve—the difference between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth.  A steeper yield curve indicates strong growth.  According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, projecting forward using past values of the slope of the yield curve and GDP growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about a 0.6 percent rate over the next year.  Using the yield curve to predict whether or not the economy will be in recession in the future, they estimate that the expected chance of the economy being in a recession next September is 8.1 percent, down from July’s 11.7 percent.

So although their approach is somewhat pessimistic as regards to the level of growth over the next year, it is quite optimistic about the recovery continuing.



I stumbled across some old Peanuts comic strips.

Charlie Brown and Linus sit silently for the first three panels before Charlie Brown screams, "WHY COULDN'T McCOVEY HAVE HIT THE BALL JUST THREE FEET HIGHER?"

A month later, another one appears.  Charlie Brown and Linus sit silently for the first three panels until Charlie Brown screams, "OR WHY COULDN'T McCOVEY HAVE HIT THE BALL EVEN TWO FEET HIGHER?"

In Game 7 of the 1962 World Series, the Yankees led 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth.  With two outs and a runner on third and second, Willy McCovey came to the plate.  Instead of walking him to load the bases, pitcher Ralph Terry pitches.  McCovey rips a screaming line drive towards right field.  No cunctator, second baseman Bobby Richardson does not even have to move has he gloves the ball for the final out of the World Series.

Many people think this was the only time Charles Schulz ever referred to a real life current event in Peanuts.

Almost a year later, Sally Brown comes up behind her brother, who’s watching TV, and nonchalantly says, “Guess what?” After Charlie Brown takes the bait and asks “What?” she carefully looks around the house, and drags her big brother behind the sofa where she’s sure that no one will hear her, and whispers, “We prayed in school today.”

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