Tuesday, May 31, 2011

The SBA and obdurate

1. Stubborn: not easily moved.
2. Hard-hearted: resistant to emotions.
From Latin obdurare (to harden), from durus (hard).


Don't go thinking the recovery in commercial real estate is being obdurate.

Last week the Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index dropped 4.2 percent from February and is now 47 percent below the peak of October 2007. The national index has fallen for four straight months as sales of distressed properties hurt real estate values.

The national index however hides what’s happening in some markets. According to Moody’s the property type with the largest increase in prices in the West was industrial, where prices rose 4.7% in the past quarter. Western industrial prices are only 7.3% below the peak which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2007.

Many industrial properties are owner-user making them perfect candidates for SBA financing.


SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2011 = 3.21%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2011 = 5.96%
504 Debenture Rate for May
The debenture rate is 3.79% but note rate is 3.85% and effective yield is only 5.639%.


Job creation is the obdurate obstacle to economic recovery.

Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

April 244,000
March 221,000
February 235,000
January 68,000

December 121,000
November 93,000
October 210,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)

December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)

December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

So far the economy has added 854,000 private sector jobs this year, or 213,500 per month.

This is a much better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.955 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession. At this pace, it will take 3 years just to get back to the pre-recession level, or sometime in 2014!

That means interest rates, especially variable rates, will remain low for awhile.



Many people think today marks the beginning of summer but we’ve actually got 22 more days until the first day of summer.

For many baseball teams however, their summer is already over.

The average correlation between a team's win percentage on June 1 and its final winning percentage is 0.76. How high is a 0.76 correlation? Statisticians consider 0.7 a "significant" correlation and 0.8 a "strong" one. These are on a scale where 1.0 represents a direct statistical relationship and 0 represents no relation at all.

Right now, Armando Galarraga’s Diamondbacks are in first place. When Armando last pitched for the Diamondbacks, they were in last place. Against the Padres he only lasted five innings while allowing eight runs. The Diamondbacks then sent him down to the minor leagues and they have since won 14 out of their last 16 games. Sunday Armando made his pitching debut for the Reno Aces and allowed six hits and five walks in five innings. The only run he allowed was of course a home run.

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