Monday, February 14, 2011

The SBA and philogyny

Love of women.
From Greek philogynia, from philo- (loving) + -gyn (woman)
Do you know the difference between a philanderer and philandrist? A philanderer is one who engages in frivolous love of women while a philandrist loves men. Philandrist comes from Greek philandros (loving of man), to refer to a woman who loves her husband. The term Philander was later used in literature to name a male character, apparently from the mistaken belief that it refers to a man who loves, rather than one who loves a man. The differences are not subtle.
Make sure you also know the differences between a SBA 7(a) loan and a SBA 504 loan. One has a variable rate while the other has a 10 year prepayment penalty. One can be used for commercial real estate debt refinance. The other might soon.
SBA LIBOR Base Rate February 2011 = 3.26%
SBA Fixed Base Rate February 2011 = 6.16%
504 Debenture Rate for January
The debenture rate is 3.89% but note rate is 3.951% and effective yield is only 5.951%.
You’ve heard of quantitative easing?

That’s where the Federal Reserve said that it would buy $600 billion of U.S. government debt to spur job growth and avoid deflation.

The Fed said it will focus about 86 percent of its purchases in notes due in 2.5 years to 10 years. As a result, the 30 year Treasury bond has become the benchmark for the world’s biggest debt investors. The 30 year Treasury bond has also become the only government debt that most closely reflects market expectations for inflation and future growth.

Since the Fed’s November 3rd announcement about these debt purchases, the 30-year yield has jumped about ½ of a percent. The interest rate on the 30 year bond has risen about 125 percentage points from a 17-month low of 3.46 percent August 25th.

Last week the government sold $16 billion of 30 year bonds with a yield around 3.75%.

Last month’s sale of 30-year bonds drew a yield of 4.515 percent, compared with 4.410 percent at the December auction.

The bond’s average yield was 4.49 percent from Dec. 31, 2007, through Sept. 12, 2008, just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Here is what the 30 year bond has been doing:
2001- 5.49
2002- 5.43
2003- ND
2004- ND
2005- ND
2006- 4.91
2007- 4.84
2008- 4.18
2009- 3.89
2010- 4.61

What a minute, why no numbers for 2003, 2004, and 2005?

One month after the 9/11 attacks, the Treasury 30 year bond is discontinued. When the Treasury mothballed the 30-year bond in 2001, experts speculated it was trying to drive down long-term interest rates, which had remained stubbornly high while the Federal Reserve was slashing short-term interest rates to revive the economy. When the Treasury discontinued the 30-year bond in 2001, its yield fell 35 basis points in one day. Why? A shrinking supply of the 30-year Treasury bond caused increased demand to drive rates down.

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

One of the reasons the Fed is keeping rates low is because of “low rates of resource utilization.”

Keep your eyes and ears open for Wednesday’s release on capacity utilization. This is one of the Federal Reserve’s favorite measures of inflationary expectations.

Capacity utilization, which measures the amount of a plant that is in use, increased to 76 percent last month, the highest since August 2008. The gauge averaged 80 percent over the past 20 years, signaling there’s enough spare plant equipment and space to prevent bottlenecks that would push prices higher. Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.

Capacity utilization at 76% is still far below normal - and well below the the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

It would appear that the savings from low variable rates of interest should continue for an "extended" period.
I think everybody knows what day today is. It goes without saying. It is a day filled with romance and hope.

Yes, today is the day some pitchers and catchers start showing up for spring training.

With only 44 days left until Opening Day even fans of the worst teams think right now they have a chance.

The two teams with the worst odds for winning the 2011 World Series are the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals.

Here are the odds for the rest of the teams to win the World Series.
Keep in mind, last year the San Francisco Giants were 25/1 odds at the beginning of last season.

Arizona Diamondbacks 100/1
Atlanta Braves 22/1
Baltimore Orioles 80/1
Boston Red Sox 5/1
Chicago Cubs 35/1
Chicago White Sox 20/1
Cincinnati Reds 25/1
Cleveland Indians 100/1
Colorado Rockies 22/1
Detroit Tigers 28/1
Florida Marlins 40/1
Houston Astros 75/1
Kansas City Royals 150/1
Los Angeles Angels 25/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 30/1
Milwaukee Brewers 25/1
Minnesota Twins 20/1
New York Mets 40/1
New York Yankees 13/2
Oakland Athletics 30/1
Philadelphia Phillies 13/4
Pittsburgh Pirates 200/1
San Diego Padres 50/1
San Francisco Giants 14/1
Seattle Mariners 80/1
St. Louis Cardinals 20/1
Tampa Bay Rays 20/1
Texas Rangers 18/1
Toronto Blue Jays 50/1
Washington Nationals 80/1

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