Monday, January 3, 2011

The SBA and asseverate

verb tr.: To affirm solemnly.
From Latin asseverare (to declare in earnest), from severus (serious).
You should asseverate to do more SBA loans.
One New Year’s asseveration should be to check out commercial real estate.

Moody's reported just before Christmas that their REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index increased 1.3% in October. This index measures overall commercial property values on a monthly basis and breaks the numbers down by property type once each quarter. The changes are based on repeat sales transactions.

This is the second consecutive month to record an increase. Prices are now up 3.2% from a year ago. This presents a unique opportunity as values are down 34.4% in the past two years and have declined 41.9% since the peak, which occurred in October 2007.

People are beginning to notice as U.S. commercial property sales more than doubled to $16 billion in the third quarter compared with a year earlier, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc.

If you would like a copy of the Moody’s report on commercial real estate, let me know.
SBA LIBOR Base Rate December 2010 = 3.27%
SBA Fixed Base Rate December 2010 = 5.77%
504 Debenture Rate for December
The debenture rate is 3.72% but note rate is 3.77% and effective yield is only 5.571%.

Is now the time to buy real estate?

How long will interest rates remain low?

Both answers depend on unemployment. Job growth will fuel fundamental commercial real estate demand. Job growth will also affect what the Federal Reserve does with interest rates.

Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.

Here is a summary of net monthly payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

November 39,000
October 171,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

There are 15.1 million unemployed people in this country. There are now 7.4 million fewer jobs in the U.S. compared to the peak of employment in 2007.

If the U.S. economy adds 200,000 jobs per month, it will take 3 years to get back to the previous peak. And that doesn't include jobs needed to offset population growth (about 125,000 jobs per month).

Until job gains are sustained, the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates low.

What’s your New Year’s asseveration?

“A New Year’s Resolution is something that goes in one year and out the other.”
-Oscar Wilde

To be more precise, what Wilde was saying is that resolutions made the last week of December are usually over the first week of January.

There is a right way and a wrong way to make a New Year's resolution.

There is also a difference between men and women and their resolutions.

For men, they should set S.M.A.R.T goals- goals that are Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time based (SMART). For example, focus on creating bite-sized, measurable goals for each week. Map out the step-by-step mini-goals that will slowly but surely take you to where you want to be, make a note of them, and stick to the plan.

For women, the secret is to go public. For example, write down your resolution on a large sheet of paper, sign it, and place it somewhere prominent in your house. Tell your friends, family and colleagues about your resolution, and ask them to provide you with helpful nudges to assist you in achieving your goal. Do not keep your resolution to yourself.

Many people often make the mistake of trying to achieve too much. The chances of success are greater when people channel their energy into one thing.

For example, do you want your weight to be average? There are now more overweight people in America than average-weight people. So overweight people are now average… which means, you have met your New Year's resolution.

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