Monday, November 29, 2010

The SBA and oniomania


(O-nee-uh-MAY-nee-uh, -MAYN-yuh)

Compulsive shopping; excessive, uncontrollable desire to buy things.

From Latin, from Greek xnios (for sale), from onos (price) + -mania.

Oniomania is another word for the urge to shop till you drop and the thrill of the bill. According to a pearl of ancient wisdom, we don't acquire things, things acquire us. In the case of oniomaniacs, it is perhaps the fun of acquiring things that acquires them.
Oniomania has not yet returned to commercial real estate but it appears that the market might be starting to rebound.

Last week, Moody’s Investors Service said U.S. commercial property prices rose 4.3 percent in September from the previous month, the biggest gain in a decade of records.

The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index climbed 0.3 percent from a year earlier as a small number of high-priced deals drove up values. The measure had fallen to an eight-year low in August.

The Moody’s/REAL index is still 43 percent below its October 2007 peak. The gauge measures overall commercial property values on a monthly basis and breaks the numbers down by property type once each quarter. The changes are based on repeat sales transactions. It is possible that commercial real prices have bottomed - in general - but it is hard to tell because the number of transactions still is very low and there are a number of distressed sales.

If you would like a copy of this Moody's report, let me know.

Keep in mind that the fee waiver for SBA borrowers only have 32 days left.
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2010 = 3.25%
SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2010 = 5.32%

504 Debenture Rate for November
The debenture rate is 3.25% but note rate is 3.30% and effective yield is only 5.102%.

Oniomania might be helping the economy.

Payrolls climbed 151,000 last month following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month. The September figure was revised from an initially reported decline of 95,000.

Leading the pack were retailers who took on 27,900 workers as they prepared for the holiday shopping season.

Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.

Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.

Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

October 151,000

September (41,000)

August (1,000)

July (66,000)

June (175,000)

May 431,000

April 218,000

March 230,000

February (36,000)

January (26,000)


December (150,000)

November (11,000)

October (111,000)

September (215,000)

August (201,000)

July (304,000)

June (443,000)

May (322,000)

April (504,000)

March (699,000)

February (651,000)

January (655,000)


December (681,000)

November (597,000)

October (423,000)

September (403,000)

August (127,000)

July (67,000)

June (100,000)

May (47,000)

April (67,000)

March (88,000)

February- (83,000)

January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Until job gains are sustained, the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates low.

In the meantime, get out there and buy something.

Oniomania is often triggered by a limited time offer.

For example, the McRib, McDonald’s miracle of a processed pork BBQ sandwich, is available only through this weekend.

No comments:

Post a Comment