oniomania
(O-nee-uh-MAY-nee-uh, -MAYN-yuh)
Compulsive shopping; excessive, uncontrollable desire to buy things.
From Latin, from Greek xnios (for sale), from onos (price) + -mania.
Oniomania is another word for the urge to shop till you drop and the thrill of the bill. According to a pearl of ancient wisdom, we don't acquire things, things acquire us. In the case of oniomaniacs, it is perhaps the fun of acquiring things that acquires them.
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
Oniomania has not yet returned to commercial real estate but it appears that the market might be starting to rebound.
Last week, Moody’s Investors Service said U.S. commercial property prices rose 4.3 percent in September from the previous month, the biggest gain in a decade of records.
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index climbed 0.3 percent from a year earlier as a small number of high-priced deals drove up values. The measure had fallen to an eight-year low in August.
The Moody’s/REAL index is still 43 percent below its October 2007 peak. The gauge measures overall commercial property values on a monthly basis and breaks the numbers down by property type once each quarter. The changes are based on repeat sales transactions. It is possible that commercial real prices have bottomed - in general - but it is hard to tell because the number of transactions still is very low and there are a number of distressed sales.
If you would like a copy of this Moody's report, let me know.
Keep in mind that the fee waiver for SBA borrowers only have 32 days left.
________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2010 = 3.25%
SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2010 = 5.32%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for November
The debenture rate is 3.25% but note rate is 3.30% and effective yield is only 5.102%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Oniomania might be helping the economy.
Payrolls climbed 151,000 last month following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month. The September figure was revised from an initially reported decline of 95,000.
Leading the pack were retailers who took on 27,900 workers as they prepared for the holiday shopping season.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
October 151,000
September (41,000)
August (1,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)
What does all this mean?
I don’t know.
Until job gains are sustained, the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates low.
In the meantime, get out there and buy something.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
Oniomania is often triggered by a limited time offer.
For example, the McRib, McDonald’s miracle of a processed pork BBQ sandwich, is available only through this weekend.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
Wow! SBA loan volume has exploded. Last week $509,303,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved, bringing the year to date total to $3,126,645,000.
Over the same period last year $2,268,868,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved and the year before that only $1,042,0914,000 in loans had been approved.
Obviously the increased guarantee and the guarantee fee waiver are working.
Over the same period last year $2,268,868,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved and the year before that only $1,042,0914,000 in loans had been approved.
Obviously the increased guarantee and the guarantee fee waiver are working.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Big changes for SBA loans
Recent legislation has increased the maximum SBA loan amounts up to $5,000,000 for the SBA 7(a) loan program and the SBA 504 loan program.
The SBA 7(a) program can be used for a broad variety of purposes such as real estate purchase, debt refinance, equipment purchase, business acquisition and working capital. A bank lends the borrower the money, and the SBA guarantees a portion of the loan.
Rates on a SBA 7(a) loan are a variable rate usually tied to prime and adjusting on a quarterly basis.
The term of the SBA 7(a) loan is based upon the use of proceeds as follows:
Real estate purchase or real estate debt refinance- 25 years
Debt refinance- 10 years
Equipment purchase- 10 years
Working capital- 10 years
The SBA 504 program is for real estate purchase or construction. A 504 loan consists of a conventional bank first trust deed and a SBA debenture in second trust deed position. Rates on a 504 loan are fixed.
The typical 504 structure is usually:
Down payment- 10%
Bank 1st- 50%
504 2nd- 40%
With the debenture now going up to $5,000,000, a SBA 504 loan could conceivably finance a real estate deal up to $12,500,000.
Not only has the loan amounts increased, so has the SBA definition of a small business. Now for both the 504 and 7(a) loan programs, SBA defines a small business as one where the net worth of the company does not exceed $15,000,000 and the net profits of the company are less than $5,000,000 averaged over the last two years.
This increase in loan size and the definition of a small business may very well keep small business afloat during the coming tidal wave of commercial real estate debt that is coming due.
Most commercial estate real loans are not fully amortized. They typically have a balloon come due in five years. As commercial estate declines in value, many borrowers are unable to refinance their commercial estate loan since the loan to value is now too high.
Any commercial real estate loan with a balloon is eligible for refinance with a SBA loan. The owner of the property just needs to also be the owner of the business occupying the building.
The primary qualifying criteria is not loan to value but cash flow. As long as the business can generate sufficient cash flow to repay the loan, it is a viable candidate. Business cash flow in the SBA lending world is typically defined as net profits plus depreciation plus rent (if rent is paid to the owner).
The fully amortizing nature of SBA loans makes them one less thing for borrowers to worry about.
The SBA 7(a) program can be used for a broad variety of purposes such as real estate purchase, debt refinance, equipment purchase, business acquisition and working capital. A bank lends the borrower the money, and the SBA guarantees a portion of the loan.
Rates on a SBA 7(a) loan are a variable rate usually tied to prime and adjusting on a quarterly basis.
The term of the SBA 7(a) loan is based upon the use of proceeds as follows:
Real estate purchase or real estate debt refinance- 25 years
Debt refinance- 10 years
Equipment purchase- 10 years
Working capital- 10 years
The SBA 504 program is for real estate purchase or construction. A 504 loan consists of a conventional bank first trust deed and a SBA debenture in second trust deed position. Rates on a 504 loan are fixed.
The typical 504 structure is usually:
Down payment- 10%
Bank 1st- 50%
504 2nd- 40%
With the debenture now going up to $5,000,000, a SBA 504 loan could conceivably finance a real estate deal up to $12,500,000.
Not only has the loan amounts increased, so has the SBA definition of a small business. Now for both the 504 and 7(a) loan programs, SBA defines a small business as one where the net worth of the company does not exceed $15,000,000 and the net profits of the company are less than $5,000,000 averaged over the last two years.
This increase in loan size and the definition of a small business may very well keep small business afloat during the coming tidal wave of commercial real estate debt that is coming due.
Most commercial estate real loans are not fully amortized. They typically have a balloon come due in five years. As commercial estate declines in value, many borrowers are unable to refinance their commercial estate loan since the loan to value is now too high.
Any commercial real estate loan with a balloon is eligible for refinance with a SBA loan. The owner of the property just needs to also be the owner of the business occupying the building.
The primary qualifying criteria is not loan to value but cash flow. As long as the business can generate sufficient cash flow to repay the loan, it is a viable candidate. Business cash flow in the SBA lending world is typically defined as net profits plus depreciation plus rent (if rent is paid to the owner).
The fully amortizing nature of SBA loans makes them one less thing for borrowers to worry about.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
504 debenture rate
SBA 504 Debenture Rate for November
The debenture rate is 3.25% but note rate is 3.30% and effective yield is only 5.102%.
Note that debenture fees have increased. The effective rate chart now includes the higher borrower fee, which is an additional 0.749%.
The debenture rate is 3.25% but note rate is 3.30% and effective yield is only 5.102%.
Note that debenture fees have increased. The effective rate chart now includes the higher borrower fee, which is an additional 0.749%.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
SBA 7(a) Rate Update
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2010 = 3.25%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2010 = 5.32%
Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2010 = 3.25%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2010 = 5.32%
Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
Another $327,346,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved last week, bringing the year to date total to $2,617,342,000.
Demand for SBA 7(a) loans remains strong as a result of the increased guaranty, guaranty fee waiver, the attractive low rate, and the lack of other lending options.
Demand for SBA 7(a) loans remains strong as a result of the increased guaranty, guaranty fee waiver, the attractive low rate, and the lack of other lending options.
Monday, November 15, 2010
The SBA and vitiate
vitiate
(VISH-ee-ayt)
1. To impair or spoil the effectiveness of.
2. To corrupt.
From Latin vitiare (to spoil, injure), from vitium (blemish). Earliest recorded use: 1534.
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
The vitiation of SBA loans is imminent.
There are only 46 days left until the 90 percent guaranty and fee waiver for SBA 7(a) loans end.
There is an SBA public meeting this week on the use of 504 loans for debt refinance from which the SBA wants comments. They will then develop proposed regulations which will then be published for a 30-day public comment period from which the SBA will then write final regulations which will then be published with a stated future effective date.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate October 2010 = 3.26%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2010 = 5.36%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for October
The debenture rate is 3.11% but note rate is 3.16% and effective yield is only 4.521%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Are you worried about inflation?
The Federal Reserve isn’t.
At their last meeting on monetary policy they said “…measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.”
One of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of the economy is the capacity utilization rate. The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher. Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.
In September, the capacity utilization rate slipped down to 74.7 percent.
Keep your eye on Tuesday’s report from the Federal Reserve on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the month of October.
It just might slip again. Last week, according to a new report released by Ceridian-UCLA their index of up-to-the-minute diesel fuel purchases by commercial trucks fell 0.6% in October after declining 0.5% in September. Diesel purchases have come to be a good proxy for the state of commerce across the country. An increase in sales means more goods are being trucked and fewer diesel purchases suggest commerce is slowing.
Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:
1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004- 79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 69.9
2010- 74.8
What does all this mean?
I don’t know.
Capacity utilization at 74.7% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.
As the Federal Reserve keeps telling us, interest rates will be at exceptionally low levels for an extended period.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
I always thought the Friday after Thanksgiving kicked off the holiday shopping season and was the biggest shopping day of the year.
It is also the day I am supposed to start on the Christmas lights and all the decorations.
According to the 44,000 member International Council of Shopping centers, the day after Thanksgiving is not the hottest shopping day. The records of the Council say the busiest day is the Saturday before Christmas as last-minute shoppers hit the stores. They figure that the day after Thanksgiving ranks fifth.
It turns out the Friday after Thanksgiving is also Native American Heritage Day. Last year Congress passed the Native American Heritage Day Act of 2009 which establishes that the Friday after Thanksgiving is to “to honor the achievements and contributions of Native Americans to the United States, and for other purposes.”
The Friday after Thanksgiving might be the closest we get to a college football playoff. Three of the four top teams in the country play that day. The top ranked team in the country, Oregon plays Arizona. The second top team in the country, Auburn, plays last year’s champion Alabama.
And the best team in the country, Boise State, plays Nevada. Boise State has won 23 games in a row, the longest winning streak in the country.
Nevada has a legitimate shot at an upset mainly because the game isn't being played on the blue carpet in Idaho. Instead it's in Reno. Nevada proved in its 52-31 victory over Cal that it can take care of a decent Pac-10 team. No one else has scored as many points against Boise State as Nevada has over the past three years—135 to be exact. Nevada lost all three games by a narrow combined margin of only 20 points.
The secret to Nevada is their pistol offense. In the pistol offense, the quarterback lines up four yards behind the center rather than seven yards, as with the shotgun formation. The running back lines up three yards directly behind the quarterback, as opposed to next to him as in the shotgun. Using the Pistol Offense last season, the Nevada Wolf Pack led the nation in rushing at 345 yards a game. The Wolf Pack also became the first team in college football history with three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season.
UCLA attempted to adopt the pistol offense this season but you need a quarterback who can throw and run. UCLA also plays on the Friday after Thanksgiving against Arizona State.
I guess the Christmas lights are going to have to wait that day.
(VISH-ee-ayt)
1. To impair or spoil the effectiveness of.
2. To corrupt.
From Latin vitiare (to spoil, injure), from vitium (blemish). Earliest recorded use: 1534.
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
The vitiation of SBA loans is imminent.
There are only 46 days left until the 90 percent guaranty and fee waiver for SBA 7(a) loans end.
There is an SBA public meeting this week on the use of 504 loans for debt refinance from which the SBA wants comments. They will then develop proposed regulations which will then be published for a 30-day public comment period from which the SBA will then write final regulations which will then be published with a stated future effective date.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate October 2010 = 3.26%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2010 = 5.36%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for October
The debenture rate is 3.11% but note rate is 3.16% and effective yield is only 4.521%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Are you worried about inflation?
The Federal Reserve isn’t.
At their last meeting on monetary policy they said “…measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.”
One of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of the economy is the capacity utilization rate. The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher. Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.
In September, the capacity utilization rate slipped down to 74.7 percent.
Keep your eye on Tuesday’s report from the Federal Reserve on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the month of October.
It just might slip again. Last week, according to a new report released by Ceridian-UCLA their index of up-to-the-minute diesel fuel purchases by commercial trucks fell 0.6% in October after declining 0.5% in September. Diesel purchases have come to be a good proxy for the state of commerce across the country. An increase in sales means more goods are being trucked and fewer diesel purchases suggest commerce is slowing.
Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:
1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004- 79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 69.9
2010- 74.8
What does all this mean?
I don’t know.
Capacity utilization at 74.7% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.
As the Federal Reserve keeps telling us, interest rates will be at exceptionally low levels for an extended period.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
I always thought the Friday after Thanksgiving kicked off the holiday shopping season and was the biggest shopping day of the year.
It is also the day I am supposed to start on the Christmas lights and all the decorations.
According to the 44,000 member International Council of Shopping centers, the day after Thanksgiving is not the hottest shopping day. The records of the Council say the busiest day is the Saturday before Christmas as last-minute shoppers hit the stores. They figure that the day after Thanksgiving ranks fifth.
It turns out the Friday after Thanksgiving is also Native American Heritage Day. Last year Congress passed the Native American Heritage Day Act of 2009 which establishes that the Friday after Thanksgiving is to “to honor the achievements and contributions of Native Americans to the United States, and for other purposes.”
The Friday after Thanksgiving might be the closest we get to a college football playoff. Three of the four top teams in the country play that day. The top ranked team in the country, Oregon plays Arizona. The second top team in the country, Auburn, plays last year’s champion Alabama.
And the best team in the country, Boise State, plays Nevada. Boise State has won 23 games in a row, the longest winning streak in the country.
Nevada has a legitimate shot at an upset mainly because the game isn't being played on the blue carpet in Idaho. Instead it's in Reno. Nevada proved in its 52-31 victory over Cal that it can take care of a decent Pac-10 team. No one else has scored as many points against Boise State as Nevada has over the past three years—135 to be exact. Nevada lost all three games by a narrow combined margin of only 20 points.
The secret to Nevada is their pistol offense. In the pistol offense, the quarterback lines up four yards behind the center rather than seven yards, as with the shotgun formation. The running back lines up three yards directly behind the quarterback, as opposed to next to him as in the shotgun. Using the Pistol Offense last season, the Nevada Wolf Pack led the nation in rushing at 345 yards a game. The Wolf Pack also became the first team in college football history with three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season.
UCLA attempted to adopt the pistol offense this season but you need a quarterback who can throw and run. UCLA also plays on the Friday after Thanksgiving against Arizona State.
I guess the Christmas lights are going to have to wait that day.
The SBA and ending the recession ONE LOAN AT A TIME
Here is a neat story about someone we helped:
http://jan.ocregister.com/2010/11/13/o-c-manufacturer-enjoys-turnaround/49286/
They obtained a SBA 7(a) loan.
http://jan.ocregister.com/2010/11/13/o-c-manufacturer-enjoys-turnaround/49286/
They obtained a SBA 7(a) loan.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
Another $366,966,000 in SBA 7(a) loans were approved last week. The total so far for this fiscal year is $2,289,996,000. The fiscal year began October 1st.
This is a significant increase over last year when over the same period $1,383,738,000 in SBA 7(a) loans had been approved. The year before that only $750,228,000 in SBA 7(a) loans had been approved.
Obviously the Recovery Act enhancements of the 90 percent guaranty and the fee waiver are working. Interestingly the average SBA 7(a) loan amount has been $348,100. Last year it was $239,610 while the year before it was $199,600.
Businesses can take advantage of the no fees, low variable rates currently offered with the SBA 7(a) loan program.
That's something to be optimistic about (see the below post).
This is a significant increase over last year when over the same period $1,383,738,000 in SBA 7(a) loans had been approved. The year before that only $750,228,000 in SBA 7(a) loans had been approved.
Obviously the Recovery Act enhancements of the 90 percent guaranty and the fee waiver are working. Interestingly the average SBA 7(a) loan amount has been $348,100. Last year it was $239,610 while the year before it was $199,600.
Businesses can take advantage of the no fees, low variable rates currently offered with the SBA 7(a) loan program.
That's something to be optimistic about (see the below post).
Small-Business Index in U.S. Rises to Highest in Five Months
From Bloomberg:
Confidence among U.S. small businesses rose in October to the highest level in five months as more companies projected sales gains and an improving economy according to The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index.
For more of this go to: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a1DC5_Vl5FYA
Confidence among U.S. small businesses rose in October to the highest level in five months as more companies projected sales gains and an improving economy according to The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index.
For more of this go to: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=a1DC5_Vl5FYA
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Ahead of the Yield Curve
Retailers appear to have cut down on shipments to avoid excess holiday inventories, an action that has sapped some of the strength from the economy, according to a new report released by Ceridian-UCLA Tuesday.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index tracks up-to-the-minute diesel fuel purchases by commercial trucks.
Diesel purchases have come to be a good proxy for the state of commerce across the country. An increase in sales means more goods are being trucked and fewer diesel purchases suggest commerce is slowing.
Nationwide, the index fell 0.6% in October after declining 0.5% in September and 1% in August. That was the first three-month drop since January 2009, at the height of the recession.
This is usually a leading indicator of the Fed's report on capacity utilization which is also due out soon.
Based upon this information, it would seem that the savings from a low variable rate with a SBA 7(a) loan should persist for some time.
For more go here: http://www.ceridianindex.com/
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index tracks up-to-the-minute diesel fuel purchases by commercial trucks.
Diesel purchases have come to be a good proxy for the state of commerce across the country. An increase in sales means more goods are being trucked and fewer diesel purchases suggest commerce is slowing.
Nationwide, the index fell 0.6% in October after declining 0.5% in September and 1% in August. That was the first three-month drop since January 2009, at the height of the recession.
This is usually a leading indicator of the Fed's report on capacity utilization which is also due out soon.
Based upon this information, it would seem that the savings from a low variable rate with a SBA 7(a) loan should persist for some time.
For more go here: http://www.ceridianindex.com/
Thursday, November 4, 2010
The SBA and the Fed- Exceptionally low interest rates for an extended period
The Federal Open Market Committee said yesterday that they will keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for an "extended period."
That means the variable rate of a SBA 7(a) loan offers an unique opportunity for borrowers that will persist for some time.
So how long is an "extended period?"
For that answer, you might want to check this out-
http://idosbaloans.blogspot.com/2010/06/when-will-fed-raise-rates.html
That means the variable rate of a SBA 7(a) loan offers an unique opportunity for borrowers that will persist for some time.
So how long is an "extended period?"
For that answer, you might want to check this out-
http://idosbaloans.blogspot.com/2010/06/when-will-fed-raise-rates.html
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
The 90 percent guaranty and guaranty fee waiver for SBA 7(a) loans is obviously working.
So far this fiscal year (it started October 1st) $1,923,050,000 in SBA 7(a) loans have been approved.
That is a $368,060,000 increase over the last week.
So far this fiscal year (it started October 1st) $1,923,050,000 in SBA 7(a) loans have been approved.
That is a $368,060,000 increase over the last week.
Monday, November 1, 2010
The SBA and dibs
dibs
(dibz)
The right or claim on something.
The origin of this term is unclear. Some think it came from shortening of dibstones, a children's game played with pebbles. The 1967 edition of "Dictionary of American Slang" states that the word "dibs" comes from the verb to divvy.
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
There are only 60 days left until the 90 percent guaranty and guaranty fee waiver expire for SBA 7(a) loans.
Currently the 7(a) loan program has dibs on debt refinance.
If you have maturing debt on owner-user real estate, a SBA 7(a) guaranteed loan can be used to refinance that debt.
Based upon feedback from SBA at the NAGGL conference, the use of 504 loans for debt refinance won't happen for awhile.
With a SBA 7(a) loan, not only can borrowers potentially save up to $166,250 in SBA guarantee fees, they will benefit from a loan that is fully amortized and have a rate of interest that will be "exceptionally" low for an “extended” period of time.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate October 2010 = 3.26%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2010 = 5.36%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for October
The debenture rate is 3.11% but note rate is 3.16% and effective yield is only 4.521%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this week.
Will they continue to say that they will keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period?”
The Fed has repeated the “extended period” language at each meeting since March 2009, well over a year ago.
One of their reasons is because, as they put it, “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls”.
Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
September (95,000)
August (57,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)
What does all this mean?
This extended period of low interest rates will last until the economy begins to demonstrate sustainable improvement in job creation.
In September, employers fired 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August. Most of the job losses actually came from the government as census workers and other government employees were let go. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000 in September. Companies hired 93,000 workers in August and 117,000 in July.
Things are slowly, too slowly, actually getting better.
In the meantime, interest rates should remain exceptionally low for an extended period.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
Happy Birthday Will Rogers.
Thursday is Will Roger’s birthday. Known for his famous quote "I have never yet met a man that I didn't like," he was more than a funny cowboy. During the depths of the Great Depression, angered by Washington's inability to feed the people, Will Rogers embarked on a cross country fund raising tour for the Red Cross.
Tomorrow as you vote, you might want to keep some of his wit and wisdom in mind:
"Everything is changing. People are taking the comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke."
"Our foreign policy is an open book - a checkbook."
"Lettin' the cat out of the bag is a lot easier than puttin' it back in."
"People who fly into a rage always make a bad landing."
“Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for.”
“Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.”
"Even if you are on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."
Most of this stuff he said 75 years ago.
Vote.
(dibz)
The right or claim on something.
The origin of this term is unclear. Some think it came from shortening of dibstones, a children's game played with pebbles. The 1967 edition of "Dictionary of American Slang" states that the word "dibs" comes from the verb to divvy.
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
There are only 60 days left until the 90 percent guaranty and guaranty fee waiver expire for SBA 7(a) loans.
Currently the 7(a) loan program has dibs on debt refinance.
If you have maturing debt on owner-user real estate, a SBA 7(a) guaranteed loan can be used to refinance that debt.
Based upon feedback from SBA at the NAGGL conference, the use of 504 loans for debt refinance won't happen for awhile.
With a SBA 7(a) loan, not only can borrowers potentially save up to $166,250 in SBA guarantee fees, they will benefit from a loan that is fully amortized and have a rate of interest that will be "exceptionally" low for an “extended” period of time.
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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate October 2010 = 3.26%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2010 = 5.36%
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504 Debenture Rate for October
The debenture rate is 3.11% but note rate is 3.16% and effective yield is only 4.521%.
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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this week.
Will they continue to say that they will keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period?”
The Fed has repeated the “extended period” language at each meeting since March 2009, well over a year ago.
One of their reasons is because, as they put it, “employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls”.
Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
September (95,000)
August (57,000)
July (66,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)
What does all this mean?
This extended period of low interest rates will last until the economy begins to demonstrate sustainable improvement in job creation.
In September, employers fired 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August. Most of the job losses actually came from the government as census workers and other government employees were let go. Private payrolls that exclude government agencies climbed 64,000 in September. Companies hired 93,000 workers in August and 117,000 in July.
Things are slowly, too slowly, actually getting better.
In the meantime, interest rates should remain exceptionally low for an extended period.
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OFF BASE
Happy Birthday Will Rogers.
Thursday is Will Roger’s birthday. Known for his famous quote "I have never yet met a man that I didn't like," he was more than a funny cowboy. During the depths of the Great Depression, angered by Washington's inability to feed the people, Will Rogers embarked on a cross country fund raising tour for the Red Cross.
Tomorrow as you vote, you might want to keep some of his wit and wisdom in mind:
"Everything is changing. People are taking the comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke."
"Our foreign policy is an open book - a checkbook."
"Lettin' the cat out of the bag is a lot easier than puttin' it back in."
"People who fly into a rage always make a bad landing."
“Be thankful we're not getting all the government we're paying for.”
“Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.”
"Even if you are on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."
Most of this stuff he said 75 years ago.
Vote.
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