Monday, October 4, 2010

The SBA and precatory

1. Expressing a request.
2. Nonbinding: only expressing a wish or giving a suggestion.
From Latin precari (to pray).

New legislation on SBA loans appears to be precatory at this point.

So far the SBA has provided policy guidance allowing

-Waiver of SBA loan fees for SBA 7(a) and 504 loans through December 31, 2010
-a 90 percent guaranty through December 31, 2010
-A new definition of a small business to be a company with net profits less than $5,000,000.

SBA still needs time to implement policies that will

-increase the maximum SBA 7(a) loan amount to $5,000,000
-increase the maximum 504 debenture amount to $5,000,000
-allow 504 loans to be used for the refinance of commercial real loans for the next two years


The first two loan pools under the new SBA First Mortgage Loan Pool Program sold last week.
This is for loans where the debenture funded after February of 2009.
The intent was to stimulate the secondary market for 504 1st trust deeds.
In addition to pool eligible loans, interest appears to be increasing for non-performing and sub-performing 504 1st trust deeds for hospitality.
SBA LIBOR Base Rate September 2010 = 3.26%
SBA Fixed Base Rate September 2010 = 5.36%

504 Debenture Rate for September
The debenture rate is 3.21% but note rate is 3.26% and effective yield is only 4.622%.

The two-year U.S. Treasury note yield fell to a record low of 0.403 percent this morning. The 30-year T-bond rose almost a full point in price to yield 3.676 percent, down 4 bps.

The bond market is telling us that the Federal Reserve intends to keep interest rates low as they put it two weeks ago at their last meeting “for an extended period.”

This extended period will last until the economy begins to demonstrate sustainable improvement in job creation.

Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.

Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

August (54,000)
July (54,000)
June (175,000)
May 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)

What does all this mean?

Overall employment, including government agencies, fell 54,000 for a second month. The decrease reflected a 114,000 drop in temporary workers hired by the government to conduct the 2010 census. Private payrolls climbed 67,000 after a revised 107,000 increase in July that was more than initially estimated.

Things are slowly, too slowly, actually getting better.
In the meantime, interest rates should remain exceptionally low for an extended period.

Pitching always beats batting — and vice-versa.”
-Yogi Berra

The Giants, who have baseball's best pitching staff, are in the playoffs. The Kansas City Royals, the second-best hitting team in the majors, finished last in the American League.

Over the last five seasons, the team that has led the majors in pitching has advanced into the postseason four times. Over that same span, the team that led the majors in home runs was only half as successful.

Five of the last eight World Series teams finished in the top four in their respective leagues in earned-run average. During that same period, none of the majors' top-hitting teams made it that far. And one, the 2008 Texas Rangers, didn't even have a winning record.

This season, no team has been better at keeping things simple than the Giants, who have a 3.38 ERA, the best mark in the majors in seven seasons. They were even better down the stretch, posting a 1.78 ERA in September, the fifth-best mark by any team in any month in the last 90 years. The Giants played 18 games in which no opponent scored more than three runs in a game. No team has done that since the dead-ball era.

Dead ball era by the way was that time in baseball before Babe Ruth started hitting it out.

The Angel’s Brandon Wood finished his season with his own dead-ball era. His batting average ended up at only .146.

Wood joins Ray Oyler as only the second player since 1920 to hit below .150 while getting 200-plus at-bats.

Perhaps the greatest example of the old baseball cliché “good field, no hit,” Ray Oyler was the regular shortstop for the Detroit Tigers in the late 1960’s.

Unable to even hit his weight, Oyler was nicknamed the “woodless wonder." He famously went "0 for August," in the summer of 1968. Tiger’s manager Mayo Smith made one of the boldest and most talked-about managerial moves in baseball history, moving the centerfielder who had never played shortstop to Oyler’s position for the last 9 games of the regular season and for all 7 games of the 1968 World Series.

The next season Oyler played for the new Seattle Pilots. Seattle fans, feeling Oyler was the Pilot most needy of support, organized the "Ray Oyler Fan Club" in spring training.

Oyler almost ruined it by homering to win the Pilots' first home game in the bottom of the ninth inning.

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