prognathous
PROG-nuh-thuhs, prog-NAY-thuhs
1. Protruding outwards.
2. Having a jaw that protrudes outwards.
TIP OF THE WEEK
A punch to the jaw for 504 loans. The SBA 504 loan program has reached its
lending cap for the current fiscal year (which ends September 30) which will
cause a lapse in issuing loan approvals.
SBA is still able to authorize 504 debt refinance
projects WITHOUT expansion as there are ample funds available in this part of
the 504 program.
504 debt refinance WITH expansion will have to wait for
the new fiscal year. Borrowers may want
to procrastinate on 504 debt refinance with expansion since the debt to be
refinanced may not exceed 100% of the new expansion costs.
As Mike Tyson once said, “"Everybody has a plan
until they get punched in the mouth."
To help borrowers punched in the mouth by the
pandemic, SBA last Thursday announced
changes to the COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) program,
including raising the loan cap from $500,000 to $2 million and adding business
debt payments to the list of ways businesses can use the loan proceeds.
SBA also announced that the guaranty fee on 7(a) loans of
$350,000 or less will remain at zero (0.00%) for the next year.
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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for September For 20 year
debentures, the debenture rate is only 1.38% but note rate is 1.406% and the
effective yield is 2.860%.
For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 1.56%
but note rate is 1.58% and the effective yield is 2.977%.
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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
The pronunciamento from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
said that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 235,000 in August, a drop
from the July total of 1,053,000 nonfarm jobs.
Do you ever wonder why they do NONFARM payroll employment? Why aren’t farmers included in monthly jobs
data?
The collection, dissemination, and use of agricultural
labor data is complicated by several factors that relate to the structure of
the agricultural industry and the characteristics of its workers. There is also
considerable seasonal fluctuation in agricultural employment, with wide
variations in peak employment by type of commodity and region. Agricultural labor data are affected by the
unknown number of undocumented workers in the field—literally.
But fear not, those farming fanatics who are interested
in such jobs statistics. The Department of Agriculture tracks farm labor
In the 1950s, there were almost 10 million U.S.
farmworkers. But the latest farm labor report from the USDA, released May 2021,
showed only 613,000 workers employed on U.S. farms and ranches.
That’s just a drop in the bucket from the latest BLS jobs
report (released in September 2021), which showed total nonfarm payroll
employment at more than 153 million people in the United States.
For what it is worth, Here is a summary of net payroll
employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
August 235,000
July
1,053,000
June
962,000
May 614,000
April 269,000
March 916,000
February 468,000
January 233,000
December -306,000
November 245,000
October 610,000
September 711,000
August 1,489,000
July
1,761,000
June 4,791,000
May 2,725,000
April
-20,700,000
March
-1,400,000
February 275,000
January 214,000
2019 2,108,000
2018 2,679,000
2017 2,110,000
2016 2,160,000
2015 2,740,000
2014 3,116,000
2013 2,074,000
2012 2,193,000
2011 2,103,000
2010 1,022,000
2009 -5,052,000
2008 -3,617,000
2007 1,115,000
2006 2,071,000
2005 2,484,000
2004 2,019,000
What does all this mean?
I don't know.
So far, the U.S. has recovered 17 million, or 76%, of the
22.4 million jobs lost in the spring of last year, leaving the nation 5.3 million
jobs below its pre-pandemic level.
Currently 11,930,415 people are receiving benefits for
insured unemployment or Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.
The prospicient long term treasury bond market
promulgated a procellous prognostication at last week’s auction of $24 billion
in 30 year treasury bonds when the high yield was only 1.910 percent, down 13
basis points from the prior month’s auction.
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OFF BASE
Prognathous promulgations by Charles Darwin where he
thought prognathous jaws reflected racial inferiority caused his half cousin
Francis Galton to disagree with him.
Darwin being unaware of Gregor Mendel’s experiments with peas prompted
Galton to do his own experiments.
Galton first discovered regression by experimenting with
sweet peas. His sweet peas produced seeds with a (normal) variation of sizes
that regressed from the distribution of their parents.
The statistical term “regression,” from a Latin root
meaning “going back,” was first used by Francis Galton in his paper “Regression
towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature.”
Regression toward the mean simply says that, following an
extreme random event, the next random event is likely to be less extreme.
For Galton, “regression” referred only to the tendency of
extreme data values to "revert" to the overall mean value.
A good example is the following series of numbers which
could represent anything, economic growth, sales projections or virus
outbreaks:
2, 4, 6.
Quick what should the next number be? My immediate reaction is to say 8 who do we
appreciate, yell out Solons and throw my mitt in the air.
A regression to the mean would suggest the correct answer
is probably somewhere between 4 and 6.
The mean of 2, 4, 6 is 4. Mean is
given by dividing the sum of observations by the number of observations (2 + 4 + 6)/3 = 4.
Regression to the mean should be understood and
appreciated. That’s why Shohei
Ohtani’s season this year is special and we should not worry about the price of
lumber or anything else for that matter.
