Procellous
pro-SEL-uhs
Stormy, as the sea.
From Latin procellosus (stormy), from procella (storm)
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TIP OF THE WEEK
A procellous prolepsis proliferates over the promulgation
of SOP 50-10-6 despite prodigious prodnosing for an official prolegomenon from
the SBA.
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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 4.75%
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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for December For 20 year
debentures, the debenture rate is only 2.26% but note rate is 2.30% and the
effective yield is 3.582%.
For 25 year debentures, the debenture rate is only 2.38%
but note rate is 2.41% and the effective yield is 3.643%.
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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Procellous and profligate pronouncements ended at the
Federal Reserve’s last meeting on interest rates.
After dropping interest rates three times last year, the
Fed kept rates the same and removed the phrase "uncertainties about this
outlook" which was part of the statements in the prior three meetings all
of which produced incremental 25-basis-point rate cuts.
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the economy
added 145,000 jobs in December, down from the 256,000 added in November.
Here is a summary of net payroll employment and this
week’s interesting little table of data:
December 145,000
November 256,000
October 152,000
September 180,000
August 219,000
July 166,000
June 193,000
May 62,000
April 263,000
March 189,000
February 56,000
January 311,000
2018 2,679,000
2017 2,110,000
2016 2,160,000
2015 2,740,000
2014 3,116,000
2013 2,074,000
2012 2,193,000
2011 2,103,000
2010 1,022,000
2009 -5,052,000
2008 -3,617,000
2007 1,115,000
2006 2,071,000
2005 2,484,000
2004 2,019,000
What does all this mean?
I don’t know.
In 2019 the economy added 2.108 million jobs, down from
2.679 million jobs during 2018. So job
growth has slowed to an average 176,000 jobs a month in 2019 from the 223,000
average the previous year.
On Friday the Federal Reserve will report on industrial
production and capacity utilization. It
is anticipated that this report will reflect further erosion in
manufacturing. One of the Fed’s favorite
leading indicators on the economy is capacity utilization which measures the
amount of a plant that is in use at factories, mines and utilities. Several analysts have pointed to a rate
between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred. The Fed last month reported that capacity in
use is at a still moderate 77.3 percent.
Federal Reserve interest rate projections indicate that
rates will stay at current levels this year.
Things remain procellous.
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OFF BASE
If after finally working for a full week makes you feel a
little proditomanic, a three day weekend approaches!
The Federal Reserve has promulgated that these are our
holidays for 2020:
Birthday of Martin Luther King, Jr. January 20
Washington's Birthday February 17 Memorial Day May 25 Independence Day July 4
Labor Day September 7 Columbus Day October 12 Veterans Day November 11
Thanksgiving Day November 26 Christmas Day December 25
Note that Valentine’s Day is the Friday of a three day
weekend. 4th of July is a Saturday, and
Halloween is a Saturday.
