Monday, December 5, 2016

The SBA and burke

burke
buhrk
1. To murder by suffocation.
2. To silence or suppress.
3. To avoid or bypass.

After William Burke (1792-1829), who killed people to sell their bodies for dissection. His preferred method was smothering so as to leave the body unmarked and suitable for dissection. He was captured, hanged, and on the judge's orders, his body was publicly dissected.

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

A burking  enervation of the guidance on affiliation and franchises is in the new Standard Operating Procedures, effective January 1st, 2017.  The intractable trichotillomania over eligibility should grow quiescent.

SBA will no longer review franchise and license agreements to determine affiliation.  Instead SBA will require the SBA Addendum to the Franchise Agreement.  Every loan applicant who is subject to a franchise or license agreement will have to have this document executed.  No more franchise registry.  No more franchise findings list.

Additional guidance on credit elsewhere and fee relief for Veterans are in the SOP

SBA expects that the SOP should be arrant and not frustraneous.

In other words, there is no reason to be pervicacious and oppugned to SBA loans.

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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate December 2016 =3.63%
SBA Fixed Base Rate December 2016 = 5.71%
________________________________________
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for November  
The debenture rate is only 2.57% but note rate is 2.6147% and the effective yield is 4.357%.
 ________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

The latest report on jobs burked any splentic presentiment over a bigly recrudescence of interest rates.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll increased by 178,000 in November.  This follows a 142,000 increase in October.  In November, the year-over-year change was 2.25 million jobs.  Keep in mind over 2.25 million  jobs were lost in just four months in early 2009.

Here is a summary of net payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

October                               142,000
September                         208,000
August                                 167,000
July                                      252,000
June                                     292,000
May                                         11,000
April                                     123,000
March                                   186,000
February                             244,000
January                               172,000
2015     2,740,000
2014     3,116,000
2013     2,074,000
2012     2,193,000
2011      2,103,000
2010     1,022,000
2009     -5,052,000
2008     -3,617,000
2007    1,115,000
2006     2,071,000
2005     2,484,000
2004     2,019,000

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

While jobs continue to grow, there is some weakness.

The change in jobs for October, the last report before the Presidential  election, was revised down from 161,000 to 142,000.

Despite the strong headline number, a lackluster reading on average hourly earnings, which slumped 0.1% in November, helped weigh on Treasury yields by dampening inflation expectations.  The 30 year Treasury bond, which is most sensitive to inflationary expectations, gained in price as its yield dropped 5.2 basis points to 3.057%.  The Federal Reserve meets next week.  Just before their meeting, there will be an auction of 30 year Treasury bonds.  At the last auction in November demand was weak and the yield of 2.902% was a hefty 43.2 basis points above the previous month’s auction rate.  Inflation has generally been moving up, and most of these measures are at or above the Fed's target.

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OFF BASE
Only 20 days until Christmas.  Since Christmas this year falls on a Sunday, the next day, the 26th will be a bank holiday.

That means we are finally celebrating Boxing Day.  Boxing Day is a holiday celebrated throughout the United Kingdom and Commonwealth nations on the day following Christmas Day, when servants and tradesmen would traditionally receive gifts known as a "Christmas box" from their masters, employers or customers. 

It began as a way of showing others less fortunate that we cared for them.  Sounds like something we should all be doing.


Thursday, November 10, 2016

SBA 7(a) Loan Rate Update

PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2016 = 3.53%
SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2016 = 5.04%
Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.

Monday, October 24, 2016

The SBA and bigly

bigly
big´ly
In a tumid, swelling, blustering manner; haughtily; violently.
Of uncertain origin, possibly from a dialect of Old Norse, bugge meaning big man

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

A bigly enervation of the guidance on affiliation and franchises should be in the new Standard Operating Procedures.  The intractable trichotillomania over eligibility should grow quiescent.

SBA expects that the SOP should be arrant and not frustraneous.

In other words, there is no reason to be pervicacious and oppugned to SBA loans.

_____________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate October 2016 =3.53%
SBA Fixed Base Rate October 2016 = 4.86%
________________________________________
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for October
The debenture rate is only 2.21% but note rate is 2.249% and the effective yield is 4.261%.
 ________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

There does not appear to be splentic presentiment over a bigly recrudescence of interest rates.

There was strong demand at the last auction of 30 year Treasury bonds.  The 2.470 percent high yield was just a half of a basis point below the yield awarded at the prior auction and 29.8 basis points higher than the record low set in the July auction.  Long term bond yields continued to climb after comments by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested there may be benefits in letting inflation run higher than the current target of 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

Inflation has for years been dormant in the U.S., which is a key reason the Fed has held off on raising interest rates in 2016. That’s led investors to seek longer-dated debt, which offers higher yields but is more sensitive to inflation expectations. In one sign of investor complacency, the real U.S. 30-year yield -- which subtracts the level of inflation based on the core Consumer Price Index -- is hovering near the lowest level since 1980.

One of the Fed’s leading indicators on inflation is capacity utilization which measures the amount of a plant that is in use at factories, mines and utilities .  The Federal Reserve recently reported that capacity utilization for September edged up 0.1 to 75.4 percent after having dropped in August.

Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:
1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004- 79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 66.9
2010- 74.8
2011- 76.7
2012- 79.0
2013- 77.8
2014- 78.8
2015- 76.5

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Capacity utilization at 75.4% is 4.61% below the average from 1972 to 2015 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.  Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.  The Federal Reserve typically won’t initiate increases in interest rates until then.

The BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (3.6% annualized rate) in September. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.4% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.  According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Inflation has generally been moving up, and most of these measures are at or above the Fed's target

Keep your eyes and ears open for Friday’s preliminary estimate of third quarter Gross Domestic Product.

Impecunious concerns will motivate the Federal Reserve but they might festinate.

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OFF BASE
Is bigly really a word? 

During the presidential debate, Donald Trump used the word “bigly” several times.  It seemed like he was trying to use it as an adverb of the word big to mean great sized, not huge, but definitely large.  Like his hands or so he claims.

But that’s not the correct usage of the word (unless the Donald meant violently and boastfully) if you look at a brief history of bigly.  This adverb came into use around 1400 and stuck around for roughly 500 years. It has been used two different ways over the centuries.

The first meaning was to mean “with great force or violently or strongly.” It appeared in such fashion in the classic King Arthur tale Le Morte d’Arthur, published way back in 1485: “So roughly and so bigly that none might withstand him,” wrote Sir Thomas Malory.

The second meaning, which has been more popular in recent centuries, means “boastfully, haughtily or proudly.” Thomas Hardy put it to use in his 1874 novel Far From the Madding Crowd: “I don’t see that I deserve to be put upon and stormed out for nothing, concluded the small woman bigly.”

Sorry about my bigly use of words.


Monday, October 3, 2016

The SBA and trichotillomania

trichotillomania
trik-uh-til-uh-MAY-nee-uh
A compulsion to pull out one's hair.

From Greek tricho- (hair) + tillein (to pluck, pull out) + -mania (excessive enthusiasm or craze).

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

SBA is not impecunious.

The SBA began its new fiscal year October 1st with a $27 billion authorization for the SBA 7(a) loan program.  This comes after another record year for SBA 7(a) loans with SBA 7(a) loan approvals hitting just over $23 billion.

The 2017 Budget continues upfront fee waivers on 7(a) loans up to $150 thousand and provides a 50 percent fee waiver on 7(a) loans up to $500 thousand to veteran-owned businesses.

That means there should be plenty of money for SBA borrowers to buy real estate, refinance real estate, buy businesses, start businesses, refinance business debt and obtain working capital.

Last week, the House on Wednesday approved a bill to fund the federal government through December 9, averting a costly shutdown two days ahead of the deadline.   The trichotillomania was enervated.

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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate September 2016 =3.52%
SBA Fixed Base Rate September 2016 = 4.85%
________________________________________
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for September  
The debenture rate is only 2.03% but note rate is 2.066% and the effective yield is 4.082%.
 ________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

You should not have any trichotillomania over interest rates.

At its last meeting on interest rates, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at a historically low 0.4%, where it has stood since officials raised it last December for the first time in nearly a decade.  In their statement, they said “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced,” its first such positive assessment this year. A similar appraisal last year was followed by a rate increase at the next meeting.

After the meeting, short-term Treasury yields rose but long-term yields fell.  A so-called flattening yield curve—describing the shape of Treasury yields moving from short-term to long-term notes—tends to occur when fixed-income investors are betting that the Fed is about to hike rates, which can lead to selling of short-term notes, the most influenced by changes in the federal-funds rate, and purchasing of longer-dated Treasuries. 

Longer term Treasuries, such as the 30 year Treasury note, are the most sensitive to long-term growth and inflation expectations. 

Keep your eyes and ears open for next week’s auction of 30 year Treasury bonds.

Here is what the 30 year Treasury bond has been doing and this week’s interesting little table:
2001- 5.49
2002- 5.43
2003- ND
2004- ND
2005- ND
2006- 4.91
2007- 4.84
2008- 4.18
2009- 3.89
2010- 4.61
2011- 2.89
2012- 2.77
2013- 3.25
2014- 3.97
2015- 2.91
2016- 2.32

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Last month’s auction of new 30-year Treasuries saw weak demand with the yield on the 30-year note advancing 7.3 basis points to 2.469%.  Since then the long bond’s yield has dropped to 2.32%

Impecunious concerns will motivate the Federal Reserve but they might festinate as they don’t want to be oppugned and enervate the economy.  There just might be a recrudescence hortatory with splenetic presentiment amongst ultracrepidarians after Friday’s report on jobs for the month of September.

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OFF BASE
Impecunious?  Festinate?  Oppugn?  Enervate?  Recrudescence?  Hortatory?  Splenetic?  Presentiment?  Ultracredpidarians?  If you are now feeling trichotillomanical, a three day weekend approaches!

Here are the officially recognized Federal Reserve holidays:
Columbus Day October 10
Veterans Day November 11
Thanksgiving Day November 24

Christmas Day December 26 

Monday, September 19, 2016

The SBA and Pangloss

Pangloss
PAN-glos
noun: One who is optimistic regardless of the circumstances.
adjective: Blindly or unreasonably optimistic.
After Dr. Pangloss, a philosopher and tutor in Voltaire's 1759 satire Candide. Pangloss believes that, in spite of what happens -- shipwreck, earthquake, hanging, flogging, and more -- "All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds." The name is coined from Greek panglossia (talkativeness).
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TIP OF THE WEEK 

A Pangloss appetite drives the restaurant industry.

Although same-store sales and customer traffic levels remain somewhat uneven, the National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a modest increase in July.

The PRI is a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and the outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry. Launched in 2002, the RPI is released on the last business day of each month.  The RPI consists of two components – the Current Situation Index (measuring current trends) and the Expectations Index (measuring restaurant operators' six-month outlook) – and tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry.  Although sales and traffic results softened in recent months, restaurant operators continued to report positive capital spending activity.

Restaurants are the largest recipient of SBA financial assistance based upon SBA loan volume data sorted by NAICS codes.

If you would like a copy of the latest National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index report, let me know.

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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate September 2016 =3.52%
SBA Fixed Base Rate September 2016 = 4.85%
________________________________________
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for September  
The debenture rate is only 2.03% but note rate is 2.066% and the effective yield is 4.082%.
 ________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

Only a Pangloss would want to raise interest rates right now.

The Federal Reserve’s next meeting on interest rates will end on September 21st, the last day of summer.

The $13.6 trillion Treasuries market is sending a signal it hasn’t flashed in years.  Last week’s auction of $12 billion in new 30-year Treasuries saw weak demand.   The yield on the 30-year note advanced 7.3 basis points to 2.469%.  Low end-investor interest meant that dealers had to step in and take down a large 37.5 percent of the $12 billion offered, their biggest share since August last year. The high yield awarded was 20 basis points higher than in the previous auction and matched the highest rate since May.  The extra yield that investors demand to own 30-year rather than five-year obligations, a measure of the yield curve, rose for almost two straight weeks.  That’s the longest streak since 2012. 

A Fed on hold is seen as potentially stoking inflation, which erodes the value of long-term debt. Futures signal barely a one-in-five chance that the Fed will tighten policy this month amid tepid economic growth and restrained inflation.

Eurodollar futures settle at a three- month lending rate that has averaged about 22 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.

Here is a summary of what the market expects for Eurodollar futures based upon the pit-traded prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange:

DEC16- 0.93
DEC17- 1,09
DEC18- 1.23
DEC19- 1.39
DEC20- 1.57
DEC22- 1.931

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Eurodollar futures currently imply a federal funds rate that really is not going to be moving up all that much any time soon.

Impecunious concerns will motivate the Federal Reserve.  They don’t want to enervate the economy. 

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OFF BASE
Did you ever wonder why Oktoberfest occurs in September and not October? 

It goes back to when the Pangloss prince of Bavaria, Ludwig married a princess back in 1810.  The citizens of Munich were invited to attend the festivities held on the fields in front of the city gates to celebrate the royal event.  Everyone had such a good time that the decision to repeat the celebrations in 1811 launched what is now the annual Oktoberfest tradition.

Ludwig would go to become king.  Not understanding anything about his people, Ludwig decreed a tax on beer.  Splenetic presentiment erupted into the beer riots of Bavaria.  Crowds of urban workers beat up police while the Bavarian army showed reluctance to get involved. Civil order was restored only after the King decreed a ten percent reduction in the price of beer.  Friedrich Engels was so appalled that he wrote about it in the Northern Star newspaper and then co-authored the Communist Manifesto with Karl Marx.


The first day of fall is September 22, 2016.  The September equinox marks the moment the Sun crosses the celestial equator – the imaginary line in the sky above the Earth’s equator – from north to south.  The length of day and night is nearly equal but then the days will continue to be shorter and shorter and night will be longer and longer until we plunge into almost eternal darkness.  Eventually the days will then start to get longer again giving the Pangloss in all of us something to look forward to.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for September      


The debenture rate is only 2.03% but note rate is 2.06674% and the effective yield is 4.082%.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

SBA 7(a) Loan Rate Update

PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate September 2016 = 3.52%
SBA Fixed Base Rate September 2016 = 4.85%
Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.

Monday, August 29, 2016

The SBA and estivate

estivate
ES-tuh-vayt
To pass the summer in a dormant state.
From Latin aestivare (to spend the summer).
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TIP OF THE WEEK 

SBA did not estivate over the summer. 

There was a substantial change to guidance on affiliation and franchises.  Formerly SBA required review of all franchise agreements of all franchises owned by the franchisee, not just the applicant agreement.  That is no longer the case.

 SBA, along with other federal agencies, is currently developing a comprehensive approach to requests for consent to C-PACE financing on 504 and 7(a) project property.  Keep in mind that the $5,000,000 limitation for SBA financial assistance only applies on a per project basis for clean energy projects.  Borrowers can obtain additional financing even if they have $5,000,000 in existing SBA guarantees.

You also no doubt heard that SBA 504 loans can now be used for debt refinance.

SBA is also putting the finishing touches on another revision to its Standard Operating Procedures.

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Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.50%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate August 2016 =3.49%
SBA Fixed Base Rate August 2016 = 4.75%
________________________________________
SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for August   
The debenture rate is only 2.04% but note rate is 2.077% and the effective yield is 4.093%.
 ________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

The Federal Reserve has one more chance to estivate. 

Its next meeting on interest rates will end on September 21st, the last day of summer.

At its last meeting the Fed included this phrase in a statement released after the meeting: "Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.”

Based on the FOMC statement, the likelihood of a rate hike in September (or November or December) has increased.  The first paragraph was about as upbeat as back in April when many analysts thought a rate hike in June was possible.  So now the key is the data.  In July, U.S. payrolls leaped for a second straight month as employers added 255,000 jobs.  Keep your eyes and ears open for the August report on jobs.  It comes out on the Friday of Labor Day weekend.   If the data is solid, the FOMC might raise rates in September.

Here is a summary of net payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:

July                                      255,000
June                                     292,000
May                                       11,000
April                                     123,000
March                                   186,000
February                             244,000
January                               172,000
2015     2,740,000
2014     3,116,000
2013     2,074,000
2012     2,193,000
2011      2,103,000
2010     1,022,000
2009     -5,052,000
2008     -3,617,000
2007    1,115,000
2006     2,071,000
2005     2,484,000
2004     2,019,000

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

There has been a recrudescence in job growth, averaging 274,000 over the last two months and 186,000 per month this year.   

Impecunious concerns will motivate the Federal Reserve.  They don’t want to enervate the economy and create any splenetic presentiment.

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OFF BASE
A three weekend approaches!

Here are the officially recognized Federal Reserve holidays:
Labor Day September 5
Columbus Day October 10
Veterans Day November 11
Thanksgiving Day November 24
Christmas Day December 26