The SBA and supplicatory

supplicatory

SUH-pli-kuh-tor-ee 

Humbly pleading.

From Latin supplicare (to kneel).

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

Commercial real estate prices continued to surge in the third quarter.

According to CoStar, commercial property sales activity surged 23% over the last year.

Both industrial properties and hotels experienced healthy gains.

This month's CoStar Commercial Repeat Sale Indices (CCRSI) provide the market's first look at September 2014 commercial real estate pricing. Based on 1,214 repeat sales in September 2014 and more than 125,000 repeat sales since 1996, the CCRSI offers the broadest measure of commercial real estate repeat sales activity. 

If you would like a copy of this release from CoStar, send a supplicatory email.

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%

SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2014 = 3.16%

SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2014 = 5.28%

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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for November       

The debenture rate is only 2.80% but note rate is 2.84% and the effective yield is 4.879%.

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting on monetary policy on October 28^th and 29^th said that they should be on the lookout for signs of a decline in expectations for inflation.

Over the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index increased 1.7 percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and has remained below the Fed’s 2 percent target for 29 consecutive months

One of the Fed’s favorite gauges of the economy is the capacity utilization rate which measures how much plants and factories are being used.  The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher.   Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.  The Federal Reserve typically won’t initiate increases in interest rates until then.

Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:

1997- 83.6

1998- 83.0

1999- 82.4

2000- 82.6

2001- 77.4

2002- 75.6

2003- 74.6

2004- 79.2

2005- 80.7

2006- 82.4

2007- 81.5

2008- 79.9

2009- 66.9

2010- 74.8

2011- 76.7

2012- 79.0

2013- 77.8

2014- 78.8

Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.3 percentage point in October to 78.9 percent, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2013) average. Capacity utilization at 78.9% is 1.2 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Also reflected in the Fed minutes was the concern that inflation might persist below the Committee's objective for quite some time.

It would appear that interest rates will not be going up anytime soon.

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OFF BASE

While inflation may not be appearing on the Federal Reserve’s radar, it is hitting home.

Americans will be paying the second-highest costs on record for their Thanksgiving dinners.

Blame the sweet-potato casserole.  Higher prices for sweet potatoes, whipping cream, and pumpkin-pie mix are driving the gains. A feast for 10 will come in at $49.41 this year, a modest 37-cent increase from 2013, while just shy of the all-time high of $49.48 set in 2012, according to a price survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation that was started in 1986.  Prices for a 3-pound (1.4 kilogram) bag of sweet potatoes rose 6 percent to $3.56, and the cost of a half pint of whipping cream climbed 8.1 percent to $2. A 16-pound turkey will cost shoppers $21.65 this year, down from $21.76 in 2013.  Turkey prices fell because retailers offered discounts to lure customers, even though U.S. grocers are paying the highest prices ever at the wholesale level.

Americans eat about 46 million of the birds on Thanksgiving. 

The average weight of a turkey purchased at Thanksgiving is 15 pounds.  How many persons can a 15 pound turkey feed?  Allow 1 pound of uncooked turkey per person. So to answer your question - 15 people without leftovers.   

So if 46 million turkeys are served and 15 people can eat a single turkey that is 675 million people that can be fed.  That’s more than twice the population of the United States.

One in seven Americans – 46 million people – rely on food pantries and meal service programs to feed themselves and their families, according to a study by Feeding America, a network of 200 food banks

46 million turkeys will be eaten on Thanksgiving Day.  46 million people in American are going hungry every day.  Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate

SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for November       

The debenture rate is only 2.80% but note rate is 2.84% and the effective yield is 4.879%.

The SBA and veteran

Veteran

vet-er-uh n, ve-truh n

a person who has had long service or experience in an occupation, office, or the like:

-a person who has served in a military force, especially one who has fought in a war:

-a Vietnam veteran.

-experienced through long service or practice; having served for a long period:

of, pertaining to, or characteristic of veterans.

  From Latin veterānus mature, experienced, equivalent to veter- (stem of vetus) old

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TIP OF THE WEEK 

U.S. military veterans can now save up to $69,062.50 on the SBA 7(a) loan guarantee fee.

SBA Policy Notice5000-1319 declares that the SBA guarantee fee on SBA 7(a) loans is now reduced by 50% for small businesses that are 51% or more owned and controlled by a veteran.

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Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%

SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2014 = 3.16%

SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2014 = 5.28%

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SBA 504 Loan Debenture Rate for October

The debenture rate is only 2.740% but note rate is 2.787% and the effective yield is 4.15%.

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AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE 

Veteran interest rate observers have noticed a flattening of the yield curve.

The slope of the yield curve—the difference between the yields on short- and long-term maturity bonds—has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth. The rule of thumb is that an inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) indicates a recession in about a year.  More generally, a flat curve indicates weak growth and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong growth.

Since last month, the yield curve flattened sharply.  

Leading the charge is the 30 year Treasury bond.  At last month’s auction of the 30 year Treasury bond, it yielded 3.074 percent, the least since May of 2013.  The yield has languished around there since then, almost a month ago.

Is the bond market trying to tell us something about how the economy is doing?  Are these lower longer term rates a harbinger of slower economic growth ahead?

Actually, robust economic growth has helped push the U.S. budget deficit down to the lowest level since 2008, marking the sharpest turnaround in the government’s fiscal position in at least 46 years.  The shortfall of $483.4 billion in the 12 months ended Sept. 30 was 2.8 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product of $17.2 trillion over the same period.  The figure peaked at 10.1 percent of GDP in December 2009.  The Congressional Budget Office in August predicted the deficit will shrink further this fiscal year, to 2.6 percent of GDP, before rising to 2.9 percent in the presidential election year of 2016. Before the fourth quarter of 2008, the last time the deficit-to-GDP share reached 2.8 percent was in April 2005.  The reprieve is enabling the government to reduce the amount of debt sold in the short term.  The Treasury recently said its borrowing this quarter will decline to the least for the October-December period since 2007.

As a result, the government can borrow more cheaply than it has in the past. Yields on 30-year Treasuries have averaged 3.4 percent this year, compared with 6.09 percent over the past three decades. 

Futures markets suggested a path of interest-rate increases far below Federal Reserve officials’ own published projections. 

Eurodollar futures settle at a three- month lending rate that has averaged about 22 basis points more than the Fed's target over the past 10 years.

Here is a summary of what the market expects for Eurodollar futures based upon the pit-traded prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange:

DEC14- 0.25

DEC15- 0.83

DEC16- 1.81

DEC17- 2.50

DEC18- 2.87

DEC19- 3.06

DEC20- 3.35

What does all this mean?

I don’t know.

Eurodollar futures currently imply a federal funds rate of 2.28 percent at the end of 2017, well below the 3.75 percent median projection in Fed policy makers’ most recent forecast, published in September. The probability that the Fed’s benchmark rate will be below 1 percent by the end of 2017, derived from options on eurodollar futures contracts, is 17.3 percent, up from 11.4 percent six months ago.

Traders are betting the Federal Reserve won’t raise interest rates any time soon.

In the meantime, keep your eyes and ears open for this week’s auction of 30 year Treasury bonds.

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OFF BASE

Veterans Day is November 11^th and it is a Federal holiday.

According to the Federal Reserve, here is our remaining holidays for 2014:

Veterans Day November 11
Thanksgiving Day November 27
Christmas Day December 25 

So why is it on the 11^th instead of a Monday?  Major hostilities of World War I were formally ended at the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month of 1918, when the Armistice with Germany went into effect. It coincides with other holidays such as Armistice Day and Remembrance Day, which are celebrated in other parts of the world  

By the way, it is Veterans Day - a simple plural without a possessive apostrophe (Veteran's or Veterans').  The United States government has declared that the attributive (no apostrophe) rather than the possessive case is the official spelling.

To all our Veterans, THANK YOU.

SBA 7(a) Loan Rate Update

Indices:

PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate November 2014 = 3.16%
SBA Fixed Base Rate November 2014 = 5.28%

Lenders can charge up to 2.75% over these indices.