As of June 25, 2010, the SBA has approved $10,501,889,000 in SBA 7(a) loans. This is only $182,711,000 in loans over the last two weeks. This is a pace slower than the dark days of 2009 when SBA 7(a) lending came almost to a standstill.
What has happened? Lenders are waiting for the 90% guaranty and guaranty fee waiver to come back.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Monday, June 28, 2010
The SBA and surcease
surcease
(suhr-SEES)
noun: Stoppage, especially a temporary one.
verb tr., intr.: To bring or come to an end.
From Middle English sursesen/surcesen, via French from Latin supersedere (to refrain from), from super- + sedere (to sit).
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
Is it a surcease in falling commercial real estate values?
The Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index measured a 1.7% price increase in
April. Since the low in prices recorded in October of 2009, prices have rebounded 4.7%.
The peak of the index occurred in October 2007 and prices are currently
41.1% below the peak.
If you would like a copy of this report, let me know.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SBA Loan Recovery ACT provisions have come to a surcease thanks to our politicians.
Legislation failed by a 57-41 vote. That means no increased guarantee or fee waiver.
Democrats needed 60 votes to overcome the GOP fillibuster of the bill.
The bill will now be pulled, according to Democratic leadership aides.
This leaves many groups in flux, including the jobless who have lost their safety net.
Despite the expiration of these Recovery ACT provisions SBA loans still provide an attractive financing option and are available.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
SBA Loan Recovery ACT provisions are not the only government stimuli with surcease.
Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell in May to a record low as a tax credit expired, showing the market remains dependent on government support. Sales collapsed a record 33 percent to an annual pace of 300,000 last month from April, the fewest in data going back to 1963. New-home sales are considered a timelier barometer of the market than purchases of previously owned homes, which account for about 90 percent of the housing market. New home sales are counted when the contract is signed. A report last week showed sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in May, adding to concern the retrenchment following the end of the tax incentive will be deeper than anticipated. Existing house purchases, calculated when a contract closes, dropped to a 5.66 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said.
Will this extend to the labor market? Payrolls rose by 431,000 in May, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census. Those workers were temporary are now being let go.
Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
June 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)
What does all this mean?
The Federal Reserve met last week and as expected they said that they would keep interest rates low are for an “extended period”. What was new and significant in their statement was that they also said “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth”.
They had previously been saying “financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.”
(suhr-SEES)
noun: Stoppage, especially a temporary one.
verb tr., intr.: To bring or come to an end.
From Middle English sursesen/surcesen, via French from Latin supersedere (to refrain from), from super- + sedere (to sit).
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
Is it a surcease in falling commercial real estate values?
The Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index measured a 1.7% price increase in
April. Since the low in prices recorded in October of 2009, prices have rebounded 4.7%.
The peak of the index occurred in October 2007 and prices are currently
41.1% below the peak.
If you would like a copy of this report, let me know.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SBA Loan Recovery ACT provisions have come to a surcease thanks to our politicians.
Legislation failed by a 57-41 vote. That means no increased guarantee or fee waiver.
Democrats needed 60 votes to overcome the GOP fillibuster of the bill.
The bill will now be pulled, according to Democratic leadership aides.
This leaves many groups in flux, including the jobless who have lost their safety net.
Despite the expiration of these Recovery ACT provisions SBA loans still provide an attractive financing option and are available.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
SBA Loan Recovery ACT provisions are not the only government stimuli with surcease.
Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell in May to a record low as a tax credit expired, showing the market remains dependent on government support. Sales collapsed a record 33 percent to an annual pace of 300,000 last month from April, the fewest in data going back to 1963. New-home sales are considered a timelier barometer of the market than purchases of previously owned homes, which account for about 90 percent of the housing market. New home sales are counted when the contract is signed. A report last week showed sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly fell in May, adding to concern the retrenchment following the end of the tax incentive will be deeper than anticipated. Existing house purchases, calculated when a contract closes, dropped to a 5.66 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said.
Will this extend to the labor market? Payrolls rose by 431,000 in May, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census. Those workers were temporary are now being let go.
Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
June 431,000
April 218,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)
What does all this mean?
The Federal Reserve met last week and as expected they said that they would keep interest rates low are for an “extended period”. What was new and significant in their statement was that they also said “financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth”.
They had previously been saying “financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.”
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
SBA 7(a) Rate Update
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee just indicated that they will continue to keep rates low for an "extended period."
The savings from a low, variable rate of interest should persist for some time.
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee just indicated that they will continue to keep rates low for an "extended period."
The savings from a low, variable rate of interest should persist for some time.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Moody's: Commercial Real Estate Prices increase 1.7% in April
Moody's reported today that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index increased 1.7% in April, after declining for the previous two months. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.
From Calculated Risk: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
From Calculated Risk: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/
Monday, June 21, 2010
The SBA and ending the recession ONE LOAN AT A TIME
We have funded another loan.
This time it was a $1,100,000 SBA 7(a) loan to refinance equipment debt. As a result of the longer term amortization available from the SBA loan, the borrower- a video production company in Orange County, improved its cash flow by $10,936 per month.
In the last ten years we have closed $754,188,499 in SBA 7(a) and 504 1st trust deeds.
This time it was a $1,100,000 SBA 7(a) loan to refinance equipment debt. As a result of the longer term amortization available from the SBA loan, the borrower- a video production company in Orange County, improved its cash flow by $10,936 per month.
In the last ten years we have closed $754,188,499 in SBA 7(a) and 504 1st trust deeds.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Senate rejects "Tax Extenders" bill, including SBA loan Recovery Act provisions
The Senate effectively rejected a slimmed-down package of jobless benefits and state aid late Thursday, rebuffing President Obama's call for urgent action to bolster the economic recovery. HR 4213 includes a $620 million appropriation that would extend the SBA loan Recovery Act provisions. There will be no votes today (Friday) in the Senate, and right now it is unclear what the next steps might be for HR 4213.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
SBA 7(a) Rate Update
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
As of June 11, 2010, the SBA has approved $10,319,178,000 in SBA 7(a) loans. This is an increase of $101,319,000 over the previous week. Through the same period last year, $5,366,723,000 in SBA 7(a) loans had been approved. Volume has almost doubled with the increased guarantee and waiver of the guarantee fee.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
When will the Fed raise rates?
Some think the Fed won't raise rates now until late 2011.
According to Calculated Risk, the Fed has not raised the Fed Funds rate until unemployment drops significantly. Based on the the Fed's own forecasts of the unemployment rate and inflation, the Fed will probably not raise the Fed Funds rate until late 2011 at the earliest.
Check it out at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/when-will-fed-raise-rates.html
According to Calculated Risk, the Fed has not raised the Fed Funds rate until unemployment drops significantly. Based on the the Fed's own forecasts of the unemployment rate and inflation, the Fed will probably not raise the Fed Funds rate until late 2011 at the earliest.
Check it out at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/when-will-fed-raise-rates.html
Monday, June 14, 2010
The SBA and vellicate
vellicate
(VEL-i-kayt)
1. To twitch or to cause to twitch.
2. To pluck, nip, irritate, etc.
From Latin vellicare, frequentative of vellere (to pull, pluck, or twitch).
Our government continues to vellicate SBA lenders and borrowers with their abulia (extra word bonus- abulia- abnormal lack of ability to act or to make decisions).
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
On June 8, the Senate began its consideration of its substitute amendment to H.R. 4213, the "American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010," which was passed by the House of Representatives of May 28. The Senate is expected to vote this week on its version of the extenders package (technically the Senate substitute amendment to the House amendment to the Senate amendment), and Senator. Charles Schumer (D-NY) has predicted that the measure will pass.
The bill before the Senate is very similar to the bill passed by the House. Both bills include many revenue raisers, such as a crackdown on carried interest (how those rich hedge fund guys make their money) making it all but certain that the bill will again be returned to the House.
The bill would extend the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act small business lending program that eliminates the fees normally charged for loans through the SBA 7(a) and 504 loan programs and increases the government guarantees on 7(a) loans from 75% to 90%.
If a lender needs the 90% guaranty, they need to wait for this new legislation. The loan queue is only for the guaranty fee waiver.
If you don’t think this makes a difference, note that only $59,936,000 in 7(a) loans were approved the other week. The week before that SBA 7(a) loan volume had soared to $732,010,000 for the week as stimulus provisions for the 7(a) program ran out of time and money.
Congress is off today however as it is FLAG DAY.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Many people think there might be a double dip dragging the economy back down as federal stimulus spending expires. Almost all the new job growth last month was due to census hiring.
Payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census.
May's unemployment report may have been disappointing, but the economy was picking up steam based on an increase in commercial truck traffic and diesel fuel sales, according to the latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index. Coming from UCLA, you know that it’s for real. The index rose 3.1% last month — the biggest one month increase since February 1999. In April it fell 0.3%. The West showed the second biggest jump — up 3.8% — after the East North Central, which saw traffic surge 6.2%. The Pulse of Commerce is based on real-time data of diesel purchases across the country. It has proven to be strongly correlated to the economy — when business is up, more trucks are transporting goods and vice versa.
Keep your eye on Wednesday’s release by the Federal Reserve on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
Industrial production in the U.S. rose in April by the most in three months. The Fed’s report showed capacity utilization, which measures the amount of a plant that is in use, rose to 73.7 percent last month, the highest since November 2008, from 73.1 percent in March. Back in August it was 69.9. The August capacity level was the lowest on records dating back to 1967.
Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:
1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004-79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 69.9
2010- 73.2
What does all this mean?
Talk of the Federal Reserve raising rates is premature.
One of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of inflationary pressure is the capacity utilization rate. The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher. Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.
Capacity utilization rates are 3.7 percentage points above the rate from a year earlier, but capacity utilization at 73.7% is still far below normal - and 9.1% below the the pre-recession levels of 80.5% in November 2007.
The economy is recovering but not fast enough to create the kind of hiring needed to reduce unemployment.
The Federal Reserve meets next week on interest rates and it looks like they will continue to keep rates low for as they put it “an extended period”.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
Today is Flag Day.
Flag Day commemorates the adoption of the flag of the United States, which happened that day by resolution of the Second Continental Congress in 1777.
Exactly 177 years later, on June 14, 1954 President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a bill into law that places the words "under God" into the United States' Pledge of Allegiance.
For those that don’t buy into that, keep in mind that also on this day in 1648 Margaret Jones was hanged for witchcraft- the first such execution for the Massachusetts colony.
It all makes sense as today is also Bourbon Whiskey Day as on this day in 1789 the Reverend Elijah Craig, a Baptist preacher, distilled the very first bourbon whiskey ever.
(VEL-i-kayt)
1. To twitch or to cause to twitch.
2. To pluck, nip, irritate, etc.
From Latin vellicare, frequentative of vellere (to pull, pluck, or twitch).
Our government continues to vellicate SBA lenders and borrowers with their abulia (extra word bonus- abulia- abnormal lack of ability to act or to make decisions).
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
On June 8, the Senate began its consideration of its substitute amendment to H.R. 4213, the "American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act of 2010," which was passed by the House of Representatives of May 28. The Senate is expected to vote this week on its version of the extenders package (technically the Senate substitute amendment to the House amendment to the Senate amendment), and Senator. Charles Schumer (D-NY) has predicted that the measure will pass.
The bill before the Senate is very similar to the bill passed by the House. Both bills include many revenue raisers, such as a crackdown on carried interest (how those rich hedge fund guys make their money) making it all but certain that the bill will again be returned to the House.
The bill would extend the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act small business lending program that eliminates the fees normally charged for loans through the SBA 7(a) and 504 loan programs and increases the government guarantees on 7(a) loans from 75% to 90%.
If a lender needs the 90% guaranty, they need to wait for this new legislation. The loan queue is only for the guaranty fee waiver.
If you don’t think this makes a difference, note that only $59,936,000 in 7(a) loans were approved the other week. The week before that SBA 7(a) loan volume had soared to $732,010,000 for the week as stimulus provisions for the 7(a) program ran out of time and money.
Congress is off today however as it is FLAG DAY.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for June
The debenture rate is 3.88% but note rate is 3.94% and effective yield is only 5.29%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
Many people think there might be a double dip dragging the economy back down as federal stimulus spending expires. Almost all the new job growth last month was due to census hiring.
Payrolls rose by 431,000 last month, including a 411,000 jump in government hiring of temporary workers for the 2010 census.
May's unemployment report may have been disappointing, but the economy was picking up steam based on an increase in commercial truck traffic and diesel fuel sales, according to the latest Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index. Coming from UCLA, you know that it’s for real. The index rose 3.1% last month — the biggest one month increase since February 1999. In April it fell 0.3%. The West showed the second biggest jump — up 3.8% — after the East North Central, which saw traffic surge 6.2%. The Pulse of Commerce is based on real-time data of diesel purchases across the country. It has proven to be strongly correlated to the economy — when business is up, more trucks are transporting goods and vice versa.
Keep your eye on Wednesday’s release by the Federal Reserve on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
Industrial production in the U.S. rose in April by the most in three months. The Fed’s report showed capacity utilization, which measures the amount of a plant that is in use, rose to 73.7 percent last month, the highest since November 2008, from 73.1 percent in March. Back in August it was 69.9. The August capacity level was the lowest on records dating back to 1967.
Here is what capacity utilization rates have done:
1997- 83.6
1998- 83.0
1999- 82.4
2000- 82.6
2001- 77.4
2002- 75.6
2003- 74.6
2004-79.2
2005- 80.7
2006- 82.4
2007- 81.5
2008- 79.9
2009- 69.9
2010- 73.2
What does all this mean?
Talk of the Federal Reserve raising rates is premature.
One of the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauges of inflationary pressure is the capacity utilization rate. The Federal Reserve watches capacity utilization rates to see if production constraints are threatening to cause inflationary pressures. Bottlenecks or shortages often lead to inflationary pressures that would drive prices even higher. Several analysts have pointed to a rate between 81% and 82% as a tipping point over which inflation is spurred.
Capacity utilization rates are 3.7 percentage points above the rate from a year earlier, but capacity utilization at 73.7% is still far below normal - and 9.1% below the the pre-recession levels of 80.5% in November 2007.
The economy is recovering but not fast enough to create the kind of hiring needed to reduce unemployment.
The Federal Reserve meets next week on interest rates and it looks like they will continue to keep rates low for as they put it “an extended period”.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
Today is Flag Day.
Flag Day commemorates the adoption of the flag of the United States, which happened that day by resolution of the Second Continental Congress in 1777.
Exactly 177 years later, on June 14, 1954 President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a bill into law that places the words "under God" into the United States' Pledge of Allegiance.
For those that don’t buy into that, keep in mind that also on this day in 1648 Margaret Jones was hanged for witchcraft- the first such execution for the Massachusetts colony.
It all makes sense as today is also Bourbon Whiskey Day as on this day in 1789 the Reverend Elijah Craig, a Baptist preacher, distilled the very first bourbon whiskey ever.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
As of June 4, 2010, the SBA has approved $10,217,859,000 in 7(a) loans. This is an increase of $59,936,000 over the last week. The week before that SBA 7(a) loan volume had soared to $732,010,000 for the week as stimulus provisions for the 7(a) program ran out of time and money.
With SBA 7(a) lending now at a virtual standstill, legislation is still pending to extend the stimulus provisions of an increased guarantee and waiver of the guaranty fee.
With SBA 7(a) lending now at a virtual standstill, legislation is still pending to extend the stimulus provisions of an increased guarantee and waiver of the guaranty fee.
Monday, June 7, 2010
The SBA and ending the recession ONE LOAN AT A TIME
We have funded another loan.
This time it was a $1,697,200 SBA 7(a) loan for the ground up construction of a new Kentucky Fried Chicken in Wildomar. This will be the second location for the borrower.
In the last ten years, we have closed $753,088,499 in SBA 7(a) loans and 504 1st trust deeds. That is over ONE BILLION dollars in total project costs.
As Coach John Wooden once said, "Don't mistake activity for achievement."
This time it was a $1,697,200 SBA 7(a) loan for the ground up construction of a new Kentucky Fried Chicken in Wildomar. This will be the second location for the borrower.
In the last ten years, we have closed $753,088,499 in SBA 7(a) loans and 504 1st trust deeds. That is over ONE BILLION dollars in total project costs.
As Coach John Wooden once said, "Don't mistake activity for achievement."
Thursday, June 3, 2010
SBA 7(a) Rate Update
Indices-
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
PRIME RATE= 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate June 2010 = 3.35%
SBA Fixed Base Rate June 2010 = 6.24%
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
SBA 7(a) Weekly Lending Update
As of May 31, 2010, the SBA has approved $10,157,923,000 in 7(a) loans compared to $4,998,225,000 through the same period last year.
Average loan size was just over $258,000.
Currently, the maximum SBA 7(a) loan is $2,000,0000.
The SBA definition of a small business is net profits after taxes less than $3,000,000 and the net worth of the company less than $8,500,000.
Average loan size was just over $258,000.
Currently, the maximum SBA 7(a) loan is $2,000,0000.
The SBA definition of a small business is net profits after taxes less than $3,000,000 and the net worth of the company less than $8,500,000.
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
The SBA and pretermit
pretermit
pree-tuhr-MIT
1. To let pass without mention.
2. To suspend or to leave undone.
From Latin praetermittere (to let pass), from praeter (beyond, past) + mittere (to let go, send).
_____________________________________________________
TIP OF THE WEEK
Congress has pretermited the fate of SBA lending.
On Friday, the House of Representatives passed the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act (HR 4213) by a vote of 215–204. The trouble lies in the fact that it was the last day of the week, with a very long holiday weekend stretching before Congress.
The bill now goes to the Senate, which will not take it up for consideration until after it returns from its Memorial Day recess on June 7.
The bill contains authorization extensions through the end of the year and an appropriation to extend fee reduction and higher guarantee.
Until then, the recovery loan queue is open.
_________________________________________
Indices:
PRIME RATE: 3.25%
SBA LIBOR Base Rate May 2010 = 3.28%
SBA Fixed Base Rate May 2010 = 6.48%
________________________________________________
504 Debenture Rate for May
The debenture rate is 4.11% but note rate is 4.17% and effective yield is only 5.52%.
________________________________________________
AHEAD OF THE YIELD CURVE
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee does not meet for another three weeks.
They will continue to keep interest rates low, as they put it, for an “extended period” until the economy shows definite signs of recovery.
One of the most visible signs will be jobs.
Keep your eye on Friday’s payroll report from the Department of Labor.
Here is a summary of payroll employment and this week’s interesting little table of data:
April 290,000
March 230,000
February (36,000)
January (26,000)
2009
December (150,000)
November (11,000)
October (111,000)
September (215,000)
August (201,000)
July (304,000)
June (443,000)
May (322,000)
April (504,000)
March (699,000)
February (651,000)
January (655,000)
2008
December (681,000)
November (597,000)
October (423,000)
September (403,000)
August (127,000)
July (67,000)
June (100,000)
May (47,000)
April (67,000)
March (88,000)
February- (83,000)
January- (76,000)
What does all this mean?
The economy has lost 1.4 million jobs over the last year, and 7.8 million jobs since the recession started in December 2007. For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).
When the numbers do come out on Friday, look at it closely.
A government boost to hiring is already under way at the Census Bureau. The agency said it will take on about 970,000 temporary workers from April through June to conduct the population count that occurs every 10 years. It will be important to remove the Census hiring to try to determine the underlying trend. The Census Bureau will release the actual number with the employment report.
_________________________________________________
OFF BASE
All those census workers hired are going door-to-door to roughly 48 million households that did not mail back their forms.
The word 'census' originates in ancient Rome from the Latin word 'censere' (meaning ‘estimate’). Perhaps the best known census was the one that forced Mary and Joseph to go to Bethlehem. The U.S. Census is mandated by the Constitution primarily to allocated congressional representation.
The last census in 2000 estimated that US population at 281,421,906, an increase of over 32,000,000 from 1990. With the population growing by almost three million people per month, it is estimated that at least 150,000 new jobs should be generated monthly just to keep up with a growing population.
Census data can also be used for all sorts of queries.
In two centuries, the country’s most common names have not changed all that much. Smith is still the best name for signing into a hotel anonymously. Johnson has moved up a notch to second. And the top five at the turn of the 18th century are still in the top six.
Over 147 people named Smith have played major league baseball. The one with the best nickname is Phenomenal Smith. Phenomenal Smith was born John Francis Gammon and got his nickname when he struck out 16 batters in a game in 1885 while pitching for the Newark Domestics, with no batter hitting the ball out of the infield.
Having been nicknamed "Phenomenal", he reportedly claimed that he was so good that he didn't need his teammates to win. While playing for the Brooklyn Grays, his team decided to punish him for his perceived brash and cocky demeanor by intentionally committing 14 "errors", losing the game 18-5. The intentional misplays of his teammates soon caused Smith to be released from the team.
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